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Re: High Speed Rail Idiocy
Author: mook
Date: 08-11-2014 - 14:55
>Tokaido Shinkansen?
Of the early HSR lines, that was the only one that started as a city center-city center line, separated from the "normal" railroads and everything else for that matter. Of course, since it was standard gauge and the existing railroads were (and are) narrow they had little choice. The current crowd around here, had they been in Japan at the time, would have derided it as something akin to BART. It turned out to be a great investment, and has expanded since to where hardly anybody will consider using normal passenger trains or driving other than for local connections.
Note that when it started "high speed" was 130 mph (essentially 200 km/h) - about what Acela can do in all but the most favorable parts of the NEC now.
And yes, I understand that Shinkansen has a mix of services - CAHSR would certainly do the same, since they have to at least try to meet the promised SF-LA express timing someday while still providing transportation to several intermediate cities. I haven't seen any credible operating plans (WAY too early for that yet), but if the stations are designed right (with through tracks) they could easily have end-end expresses, "locals" making all the stops (which should still be 60-100 miles apart), and "limiteds" hitting the major towns (e.g. SF-SFO-SJ-Merced(?)-Fresno-Bakersfield-BUR-LA). I wouldn't be surprised, even, if they could fit in some "freight" runs for packages and mail, as the TGV is now doing.
But of course it's all a dream unless large chunks of cash ($20B range) can be scared up when the major mountain segments need construction. The urban segments will probably cost nearly that, but they can be left for last, as TGV did, using moderately improved existing lines to start with. That's the "blended" concept - perfectly logical if you don't have all $70B up front which is impossible anyway. I think they'll find the money, and not all of it will be taxpayers'. With reasonable luck and competence (see my previous concerns about the current crowd in charge), only way this doesn't work is if Musk actually builds enough of his hyperloop thing to demonstrate feasibility (in which case let him built the I-5 line), or if the no-way-no-how types win as they did in WI and FL (significant chance, but only likely under extreme circumstances such as the 6-Californias breakup).
Of the early HSR lines, that was the only one that started as a city center-city center line, separated from the "normal" railroads and everything else for that matter. Of course, since it was standard gauge and the existing railroads were (and are) narrow they had little choice. The current crowd around here, had they been in Japan at the time, would have derided it as something akin to BART. It turned out to be a great investment, and has expanded since to where hardly anybody will consider using normal passenger trains or driving other than for local connections.
Note that when it started "high speed" was 130 mph (essentially 200 km/h) - about what Acela can do in all but the most favorable parts of the NEC now.
And yes, I understand that Shinkansen has a mix of services - CAHSR would certainly do the same, since they have to at least try to meet the promised SF-LA express timing someday while still providing transportation to several intermediate cities. I haven't seen any credible operating plans (WAY too early for that yet), but if the stations are designed right (with through tracks) they could easily have end-end expresses, "locals" making all the stops (which should still be 60-100 miles apart), and "limiteds" hitting the major towns (e.g. SF-SFO-SJ-Merced(?)-Fresno-Bakersfield-BUR-LA). I wouldn't be surprised, even, if they could fit in some "freight" runs for packages and mail, as the TGV is now doing.
But of course it's all a dream unless large chunks of cash ($20B range) can be scared up when the major mountain segments need construction. The urban segments will probably cost nearly that, but they can be left for last, as TGV did, using moderately improved existing lines to start with. That's the "blended" concept - perfectly logical if you don't have all $70B up front which is impossible anyway. I think they'll find the money, and not all of it will be taxpayers'. With reasonable luck and competence (see my previous concerns about the current crowd in charge), only way this doesn't work is if Musk actually builds enough of his hyperloop thing to demonstrate feasibility (in which case let him built the I-5 line), or if the no-way-no-how types win as they did in WI and FL (significant chance, but only likely under extreme circumstances such as the 6-Californias breakup).
