Re: U.S. Rails "Not" Really yet a "Bear" Market
Author: BOB2
Date: 06-30-2015 - 02:14
While the sky is always falling to those inclined to see the world that way, my Berkshire stock is only down from the earlier high of nearly $150 to $136.
I think that Rose has been honest and open about the issues BNSF is facing and investors have factored that in. I actually thought my stock was overvalued, so I kind of expected this correction.
Since intermodal is continuing to rise and most of this fall in traffic relates to coal traffic volume losses, I doubt the sky will fall. Coal is expensive and dirty compared to gas for making electricity (or about anything else?), and while that is bad for UP and BNSF Powder Rive "tonnage" volumes, it is actually good for the rest of us consumers in bringing us cheaper electricity.
RR stocks had been outperforming the market by about 20% since 2011, now, a market correction has taken them down, to only performing with the rest of the market.
I expect energy prices to rise slightly over the next year, (as I also predicted six months ago, and has occurred with oil) as we are already seeing a floor build under fracking oil prices. So now, that RR's and other Dow "transports" (trucks and air were really off a lot more) have corrected from an outperformance of the market, and are priced at levels which reflect these new realities, there may even be buying opportunities for RR stocks.
A slow steady but growing real economy, a strong dollar, little or no inflation, cheap energy, and the slow economies in Europe and Asia, are also reflected in this overdue market correction. However, this means that interest rates are unlikely to spike or be raised in any significant way by the Federal Reserve, still making stocks the preferred investment for higher returns. If the Greek fiasco is dealt with, and China begins more aggressive stimulus, I think you may actually see a fall rally in stocks.
Remember when investing, buy low, sell high...... And, never follow the herd when investing, they'll only lead you off of the cliff, when they panic.