As of 2005, the USGS documented enough oil in the lower 48 alone to run America at 2005 levels for 173 years, unfortunatly 96% of those documented reserves are off limits due to "enviromental concerns" that range from visual protection to protecting endangered insects. These reserves do not count recently discovered oil fields in North Dakota and the Gulf of Mexico (China is directionally drilling into Gulf reserves as we speak---50 miles off the coast of Florida, among other areas). The U.S. has not constructed a new refinery in 35 years, Shell has been attempting to build a couple of refineries and has been undergoing the permitting and public hearing process for 15 years for one and 19 years on the other. Given current enviromental regulations and NIMBY and BANANA laws building any sort of high speed rail is out of the question----see Shell oil comment above----just look at how long DME has been attempting to build its line. Just in time delivery came about due to some states inventory tax laws that tax businesses on their inventory on hand, no business wants to pay taxes on a car load of inventory, they just want to have a few on the shelf and a few more in the supply chain and little more because it's just gonna cost them money. Railroads don't want extra capacity that is just going to raise their tax liability if it isn't used enough. In the 1980's, just after the Frisco merger, BN went through a building purge, eliminate any building not absolutly needed, and if possible convert needed buildings to Semi-trailers or containers instead of permanent buildings that could be taxed. As the buildings, stations and roundhouses fell, so did the tax liability BN had to pay (saw the figure once, it was pretty unbelievable how much the savings was). Made for some bad working conditions and made for some very expensive equipment sitting out in the weather---but they were still money ahead due to the reduced taxes.
Now the next thing on the horizon is carbon trading and carbon taxes, didn't pass this last week, but is expected to pass handily next year. It could become more profitable for railroads to shut down and trade and swap their carbon credits to other businesses and----should we join the UN credit program----other countries. Had one railroad executive mentioned that option to me at a meeting last week. Depending on how valuable the carbon credits are, some railroads would be money ahead to mothball the railroad and lay off all employees, terminate locomotive leases and car leases and buy and sell carbon credits and lease RR real estate. (Executive stated that it would be much, much cheaper to buy and sell credits that it would be to attempt to document its carbon usage (think of all the accounting on that) and attempt to calculate carbon needs, they try to buy needed credits at a reasonable price, then attempt to set rates to cover costs of those credits, keep employees fueled with enough credits to get to work, supply credits to crew shuttle services---what a nightmare---coming soon!!) Hope I can make it to retirement soon!