 |
SMART Ridership - Let's Face Facts
Author: Art Carney
Date: 09-08-2017 - 20:12
There exist only 3 published ridership analyses for SMART.
2006 - EIR A bit over 5,000 projected for 2025. This is the one that indicated only 230 Sonoma residents would take trains into Marin in the morning commute.
2011 - Dowling Study - A study that was thrown out because it made no sense as it had more morning commuters leaving San Rafael than arriving and hardly any within Sonoma Co. commuters.
2014 - EIS (EA prepared for the feds to obtain funding for the Larkspur extension)
A study which claimed that in 2035 the extension to the ferry would generate an extra 131 riders / weekday. (Yes, this ridiculously low figure is in the EA Appendix)
The 3,000 # is Farhad's who pulled it out of the air, providing no information for the Board or public as to how he derived the figure.
And that's all there is. Could staff have run models internally? Sure. But the results have never been made public.
But everyone in this forum should realize spending $600 MM of mostly local tax dollars
on 3,000 riders/day -- if they achieve that figure -- is beyond absurd. It's roughly 1,500 people in the morning. And since the train operates in 2 directions it's an even smaller number in each direction, which is what really matters. And that's before accounting for those who may be switching from buses to trains.
Given the trouble they're already having keeping the gap filled schedule they've posted, who knows how far below 3,000/day they may generate. But let's face facts: whether they obtain 2,000/day or 3,000/day or 4,000/day the issue is political. It'll make little to transportation.
For sure they'll declare victory if it exceeds 3,000/day. For sure, they'll try to explain away the 2,000 / day figure (if that's what the average ridership turns out to be).
Either way, the ridership figures are paltry and expected to be paltry for a long time.
All the models have indicated this. And the ridership figures generated during the week at full fare are relatively consistent with the models.
AC
2006 - EIR A bit over 5,000 projected for 2025. This is the one that indicated only 230 Sonoma residents would take trains into Marin in the morning commute.
2011 - Dowling Study - A study that was thrown out because it made no sense as it had more morning commuters leaving San Rafael than arriving and hardly any within Sonoma Co. commuters.
2014 - EIS (EA prepared for the feds to obtain funding for the Larkspur extension)
A study which claimed that in 2035 the extension to the ferry would generate an extra 131 riders / weekday. (Yes, this ridiculously low figure is in the EA Appendix)
The 3,000 # is Farhad's who pulled it out of the air, providing no information for the Board or public as to how he derived the figure.
And that's all there is. Could staff have run models internally? Sure. But the results have never been made public.
But everyone in this forum should realize spending $600 MM of mostly local tax dollars
on 3,000 riders/day -- if they achieve that figure -- is beyond absurd. It's roughly 1,500 people in the morning. And since the train operates in 2 directions it's an even smaller number in each direction, which is what really matters. And that's before accounting for those who may be switching from buses to trains.
Given the trouble they're already having keeping the gap filled schedule they've posted, who knows how far below 3,000/day they may generate. But let's face facts: whether they obtain 2,000/day or 3,000/day or 4,000/day the issue is political. It'll make little to transportation.
For sure they'll declare victory if it exceeds 3,000/day. For sure, they'll try to explain away the 2,000 / day figure (if that's what the average ridership turns out to be).
Either way, the ridership figures are paltry and expected to be paltry for a long time.
All the models have indicated this. And the ridership figures generated during the week at full fare are relatively consistent with the models.
AC
