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Re: Observations from a Demand Forecaster
Author: Erik H.
Date: 09-09-2017 - 11:11
BOB2 Wrote:
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> 1800 and change for the opening day of regular service isn't too bad. The projection of
> 3,000 seems achievable. But, be careful when using "forecasts" to assess performance.
> Is SMART even running the scheduled level of service on which the 3000 daily estimate was
> "forecast"?
Remember up north with WES, initial ridership was strong and got weak later on. Estimated projected ridership after one year was 2,500 riders; 5,000 riders after five years.
It's been eight and a half years, and ridership is still below 2,000, hovering at around 1,800 to 1,900 per month. Now I have stronger hopes for SMART as there's greater population and a much busier highway paralleling it, but the lack of a major destination along the route (just like WES) or a major transit hub works against it. I say give it a year or so to see the true colors - if people start to pick up on it, or the initial riders realize it just isn't right for them.
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> 1800 and change for the opening day of regular service isn't too bad. The projection of
> 3,000 seems achievable. But, be careful when using "forecasts" to assess performance.
> Is SMART even running the scheduled level of service on which the 3000 daily estimate was
> "forecast"?
Remember up north with WES, initial ridership was strong and got weak later on. Estimated projected ridership after one year was 2,500 riders; 5,000 riders after five years.
It's been eight and a half years, and ridership is still below 2,000, hovering at around 1,800 to 1,900 per month. Now I have stronger hopes for SMART as there's greater population and a much busier highway paralleling it, but the lack of a major destination along the route (just like WES) or a major transit hub works against it. I say give it a year or so to see the true colors - if people start to pick up on it, or the initial riders realize it just isn't right for them.
