 |
Re: Is SMART meeting ridership projections? Analysis
Author: Erik H.
Date: 02-05-2018 - 17:23
Richard Hall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CONCLUSIONS
> Weekday ridership in Sept was 19% below projections
>
> Weekday ridership in Oct was 26% below projections
>
> So the gap between projections and actual ridership is only widening.
>
> It is inaccurate to be saying SMART is exceeding it's forecast.
Anyone who knows me, knows that I am one of the largest critics of a similar "commuter rail" system up in the Portland metro area, WES Commuter Rail.
But I'll give a benefit of the doubt with SMART - there is no way they could have foreseen the impact of the Tubbs Fire, and the massive loss of homes - and population. Thousands and thousands of peoples' lives were disrupted and were forced to flee the area, even to this day. You can't blame SMART for that...
WES, on the other hand, began operations during the Great Recession of 2009 and should have benefited from solid economic growth, new construction, new business, and increasing traffic congestion. It was sold to residents to help reduce traffic on two freeways (I-5 and Oregon 217) and would have ridership of 2,500 riders after just one year of service, and would be 5,000 or more riders. After nine years of operation, the ridership is still at 1,800 daily trips, at a cost of $19/boarding ride.
-------------------------------------------------------
> CONCLUSIONS
> Weekday ridership in Sept was 19% below projections
>
> Weekday ridership in Oct was 26% below projections
>
> So the gap between projections and actual ridership is only widening.
>
> It is inaccurate to be saying SMART is exceeding it's forecast.
Anyone who knows me, knows that I am one of the largest critics of a similar "commuter rail" system up in the Portland metro area, WES Commuter Rail.
But I'll give a benefit of the doubt with SMART - there is no way they could have foreseen the impact of the Tubbs Fire, and the massive loss of homes - and population. Thousands and thousands of peoples' lives were disrupted and were forced to flee the area, even to this day. You can't blame SMART for that...
WES, on the other hand, began operations during the Great Recession of 2009 and should have benefited from solid economic growth, new construction, new business, and increasing traffic congestion. It was sold to residents to help reduce traffic on two freeways (I-5 and Oregon 217) and would have ridership of 2,500 riders after just one year of service, and would be 5,000 or more riders. After nine years of operation, the ridership is still at 1,800 daily trips, at a cost of $19/boarding ride.
