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Re: Take a stand!
Author: Clem
Date: 03-18-2018 - 09:24
Bob, you'll note that I never pretended this spreadsheet was something else than expenses to date, which (through March 2018) are indeed $4.3 billion as I accurately stated. The work already under contract isn't worth more than another couple of billion... someone interested in the exact figure could easily dig it up.
I'll say it again: the HSR project as currently planned is barely started. We're on the order of 10% into this, and no further along. There is plenty of time (and lack of money) to give us the opportunity to reflect and adjust.
Your list of questions for the first 30 days of your hypothetical administration boils down to "where are we?" and artfully dodges the real question of where to go from here. Presumably your panel of seven experts will figure it out. Take a stand! What should we build and where? Expose yourself to criticism!
My list is:
1) maintain HSR approach of dedicated high-speed corridors. The future aorta of California's transportation network can't be clogged with the arterial plaque of slow conventional services and freight trains, or impeded by freight railroad ownership. Yes, it's expensive and yes, it will take a while, but every step along the way must enable this goal. By the time the ROW is complete it may not even be steel wheel on steel rail, but we'll be glad we set aside a high-speed alignment... Newton's laws will still apply to whatever future propulsion system might be invented, so horizontal and vertical curvature will always matter.
2) give up on Pacheco Pass
3) extend CV high-speed ROW northwards from Merced to at least Tracy. In the interim, run San Joaquins on the new ROW.
4) build a new greenfield alignment across Altamont pass to Fremont with very aggressive ruling grade (4 to 5%) to keep the length of tunnels and bridges to the absolute minimum. This can't be used by diesel locomotive-hauled consists, so electrify it right away and run a new ACE commuter service with commuter EMUs of the same flavor as Caltrain recently ordered. As an option, connect this to BART in Livermore with a cross-platform transfer. This achieves the major step of unclogging the 580 corridor.
5) make a big push on the LOSSAN corridor, starting with a core system of Electrolink from Burbank to Anaheim via run-through LAUS. Electrolink is the same thing as the "blended system" on Caltrain, using the same technical solution of high-performance commuter EMU (reduce time in motion) with level boarding (reduce time at rest).
6) it's make or break time! Apply the same aggressive strategy of high ruling grade to punch through the southern mountains over Tejon Pass. This will be an alignment like no other, not even in mountainous Switzerland where they keep building base tunnels for freight trains. It will be available solely to high-speed EMUs endowed with high power-to-weight ratio, high adhesion factor, and a new eddy current braking system that will be required to safely operate downhill at high speeds. Ruling grade of 4 to 5% is the one architectural decision that makes building across the southern mountain crossing remotely financially feasible. Try to build it flatter and you get killed by the resulting dozens of miles of tunnels and bridges. The sensitivity of the cost of civil works to the value of the ruling gradient cannot be overstated!
7) as soon as the mountains are crossed electrify the whole thing, including the bits that aren't yet upgraded to dedicated ROW. This means getting UPRR and BNSF on board with electrification. There is no technical reason why they should object, since OCS can be made compatible with AAR Plate H (as will soon be demonstrated on the peninsula). You now have 25 kV OCS stretching from San Diego to Sacramento and San Jose / San Francisco
8) enlarge the capillaries of this network: build a Dumbarton tunnel and run commuter and HSR services directly into SF Transbay. Upgrade the approach to Sacramento, with the goal of replacing the Capitol Corridor with a high-speed service via Altamont Pass. Original Cap Corr can use DMUs to pick up the crumbs of ridership that don't fall in the catchment area of the electric high-speed network via Altamont.
What say you? Hire more consultants to conduct more analysis?
I'll say it again: the HSR project as currently planned is barely started. We're on the order of 10% into this, and no further along. There is plenty of time (and lack of money) to give us the opportunity to reflect and adjust.
Your list of questions for the first 30 days of your hypothetical administration boils down to "where are we?" and artfully dodges the real question of where to go from here. Presumably your panel of seven experts will figure it out. Take a stand! What should we build and where? Expose yourself to criticism!
My list is:
1) maintain HSR approach of dedicated high-speed corridors. The future aorta of California's transportation network can't be clogged with the arterial plaque of slow conventional services and freight trains, or impeded by freight railroad ownership. Yes, it's expensive and yes, it will take a while, but every step along the way must enable this goal. By the time the ROW is complete it may not even be steel wheel on steel rail, but we'll be glad we set aside a high-speed alignment... Newton's laws will still apply to whatever future propulsion system might be invented, so horizontal and vertical curvature will always matter.
2) give up on Pacheco Pass
3) extend CV high-speed ROW northwards from Merced to at least Tracy. In the interim, run San Joaquins on the new ROW.
4) build a new greenfield alignment across Altamont pass to Fremont with very aggressive ruling grade (4 to 5%) to keep the length of tunnels and bridges to the absolute minimum. This can't be used by diesel locomotive-hauled consists, so electrify it right away and run a new ACE commuter service with commuter EMUs of the same flavor as Caltrain recently ordered. As an option, connect this to BART in Livermore with a cross-platform transfer. This achieves the major step of unclogging the 580 corridor.
5) make a big push on the LOSSAN corridor, starting with a core system of Electrolink from Burbank to Anaheim via run-through LAUS. Electrolink is the same thing as the "blended system" on Caltrain, using the same technical solution of high-performance commuter EMU (reduce time in motion) with level boarding (reduce time at rest).
6) it's make or break time! Apply the same aggressive strategy of high ruling grade to punch through the southern mountains over Tejon Pass. This will be an alignment like no other, not even in mountainous Switzerland where they keep building base tunnels for freight trains. It will be available solely to high-speed EMUs endowed with high power-to-weight ratio, high adhesion factor, and a new eddy current braking system that will be required to safely operate downhill at high speeds. Ruling grade of 4 to 5% is the one architectural decision that makes building across the southern mountain crossing remotely financially feasible. Try to build it flatter and you get killed by the resulting dozens of miles of tunnels and bridges. The sensitivity of the cost of civil works to the value of the ruling gradient cannot be overstated!
7) as soon as the mountains are crossed electrify the whole thing, including the bits that aren't yet upgraded to dedicated ROW. This means getting UPRR and BNSF on board with electrification. There is no technical reason why they should object, since OCS can be made compatible with AAR Plate H (as will soon be demonstrated on the peninsula). You now have 25 kV OCS stretching from San Diego to Sacramento and San Jose / San Francisco
8) enlarge the capillaries of this network: build a Dumbarton tunnel and run commuter and HSR services directly into SF Transbay. Upgrade the approach to Sacramento, with the goal of replacing the Capitol Corridor with a high-speed service via Altamont Pass. Original Cap Corr can use DMUs to pick up the crumbs of ridership that don't fall in the catchment area of the electric high-speed network via Altamont.
What say you? Hire more consultants to conduct more analysis?
