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Re: Where are we with CHSRA? No, What are we doing and why are we doing it?
Author: BOB2
Date: 03-18-2018 - 14:50
Max, I suspect that there may be many well qualified foreign experts, that have experience in the planning and design of rail systems that could be found.
And, Clem the question I'm asking is not just "where are we", that is only part of my question.
The fundamental question I'm still asking as a transportation economist, who is no train hater, that in my 25 years of actual experience and participation professionally as an observer of the CHSRA, that has never been answered is, "What are we doing?" and "Why are we doing it?"..... Which, more chorus's of "build it and they will come" hype from the CHSRA or political egos, doesn't really answer, does it?
Salvaging the current mess at the CHSRA, and the vast amounts we are spending needs t be justified with demonstrable travel needs, that will ultimately fill the seats, at given levels of service, at given time savings, and at various fares. California must face the fact that we are spending about 90%+ of our available taxpayers supplied "potential" rail passenger budget in California on a project that cannot, and ahs never been, credibly able tell what that demand is and where it will come from.
How many trips are attracted to the station pairs from the other stations pairs? Will some or all of it come out of airline travel markets? How many trips is that? From where to where? Will some or all of it come out of auto travel markets? How many trip is that? What is the travelers value of time savings? What will the fares be? What is the elasticity of demand for these trips with respect to price and service levels?
We have real data and real market share in LA-SD, more than air travel, in the busiest intercity interstate highway corridor in America on I-5. Every dollar that is pissed away on a demand we have never really documented is another taxpayer dollar that cannot meet that real and well documented rail travel demand. That means that we cannot offer more service as an alternative to the 5 hour auto travel time to go the 126 miles (200 kilometers for Max...) on Interstate 5. It means that we don't have the funds to upgrade the average 3 hour rail schedule on LOSSAN, in a region half the size of Switzerland, with well over 2.5 times the population of Switzerland?
And, Clem the question I'm asking is not just "where are we", that is only part of my question.
The fundamental question I'm still asking as a transportation economist, who is no train hater, that in my 25 years of actual experience and participation professionally as an observer of the CHSRA, that has never been answered is, "What are we doing?" and "Why are we doing it?"..... Which, more chorus's of "build it and they will come" hype from the CHSRA or political egos, doesn't really answer, does it?
Salvaging the current mess at the CHSRA, and the vast amounts we are spending needs t be justified with demonstrable travel needs, that will ultimately fill the seats, at given levels of service, at given time savings, and at various fares. California must face the fact that we are spending about 90%+ of our available taxpayers supplied "potential" rail passenger budget in California on a project that cannot, and ahs never been, credibly able tell what that demand is and where it will come from.
How many trips are attracted to the station pairs from the other stations pairs? Will some or all of it come out of airline travel markets? How many trips is that? From where to where? Will some or all of it come out of auto travel markets? How many trip is that? What is the travelers value of time savings? What will the fares be? What is the elasticity of demand for these trips with respect to price and service levels?
We have real data and real market share in LA-SD, more than air travel, in the busiest intercity interstate highway corridor in America on I-5. Every dollar that is pissed away on a demand we have never really documented is another taxpayer dollar that cannot meet that real and well documented rail travel demand. That means that we cannot offer more service as an alternative to the 5 hour auto travel time to go the 126 miles (200 kilometers for Max...) on Interstate 5. It means that we don't have the funds to upgrade the average 3 hour rail schedule on LOSSAN, in a region half the size of Switzerland, with well over 2.5 times the population of Switzerland?
