UP won't lowball new customer contract rates unless they really want the business. Tesla gotta consider cost of draying the Tesla vehicles to Richmond from Fremont, not cheap. BNSF might be willing to eat some or all those costs to get the business but how low would they be willing to go on rates for a long term contract? The one advantage UP has is no draying, just load the autos at the Fremont factory.

One huge unknown is how the batteries will get to Fremont from the Reno area once that big new facility out east of Reno is done. Long term trucking costs are not an option if Musk is serious about cutting costs. I heard Tesla and UP already had the framework of a deal worked out.