Re: Cramer bullish on UP stock????
Author: buy low sigh
Date: 11-19-2018 - 14:23
Cramer bullish ... rearrange letters of the second word, add a "t".
UP will almost certainly go up in the short term relative to other railroads given the PSR garbage. Then it will fall like the other railroads as the economy slows (especially imports). Assuming they don't foul it all up in the process the way CSX did - there will almost certainly be operational issues and shipper complaints while the changes are being made, and given its size they will be worse with UP than they were with CSX (CSX was certainly bad enough; then HH died). The stock will take a beating while things are worked out. Assuming it eventually works and the operating ratio takes a dive, like CSX the stock price will improve. None of that is indicative of the railroad working well as a railroad; it simply means that the Wall Street types are happy that they can get higher dividends out of the higher profits, some of which are short-term because they come from liquidating capital assets (lines they decide not to use, equipment no longer needed) and other assets (employees that know what they're doing). The real trick will be to know when all the "improvements" are tapped out and the chickens are returning home, so one can bail out before a correction happens. Investigate CN and CP to see how things work out - they're a few years ahead of CSX and UP on the PSR curve.