Wonder when SMART will stop trying to bill this as a commuter line and instead admit what it is: a local service light rail line for Sonoma and Marin. Let's face it, GGT will still need their express buses even with SMART because it make more sense for the majority of commuters to walk to the bus or drive/bike a few miles to a parknride, then get a one-seat ride into SF. No stops once you hit the freeway, and no transfer at Larkspur. No matter how convenient you make it, a transfer always kills 10-15 minutes (at least), and the train with many stops followed by the boat is nowhere near a fast trip. As a partial substitute for local service mainline buses, though, it has possibilities.

Let's figure a couple of real-world schedules here. Express bus SRosa-SF averages about 2.5 hours (in peak traffic). Call it 20-25 mph including stops in Sonoma Co. Local run (adding stops in most towns SRosa-Novato plus SRafael, and along the freeway at most interchanges in Marin) takes more like 3-3.5 hours. Call that 15 mph. Train will run about 55 max. (typical light rail top speed, vs. 65 for the bus). With stops, average speed drops quickly because the train doesn't accelerate or decelerate as quickly as a bus. Stops on SMART will be relatively far apart by light rail standards (1 to maybe 5+ miles; most light rail lines have stops ranging from 1/2 mile to maybe 2 miles apart). So let's say the average speed will be higher than normal light rail average speed (say, 35 instead of somewhere between 15-20). Fine, but throw in 15 minutes to transfer to the boat and another hour or so afloat and you are right down there with the local run for average speed on a full-length SF commute, and you have to transfer to do it. On the other hand, for service WITHIN Sonoma and Marin, the average speed of 35 more than doubles the average speed of the local mainline bus, and even is better within the corridor (not to SF with the transfer) than the express bus given the trundles thru town in SRosa, Petaluma, and SRafael.

So SMART may actually make sense (if they can run frequent enough service - another time...) for local service, and carrying the occasional commuter to the boats. But for the admittedly declining SF commuter market express buses still make more sense from a speed and comfort standpoint. While the Larkspur article didn't describe a thinking process like this one, it shows some dawning realization that Marin-Sonoma can't rely on cars, buses, and 101 forever. Whether SMART in its present form is the way to go is still subject to debate (and a vote!), but it has matured a little bit from previous proposals.

Cheers!