Re: PHOENIX DEPOT-AZ Good stuff Les, but how much progress has occured since 2013?
Author: BOB2
Date: 06-14-2019 - 09:26
Les,
These are interesting documents from ADOT, thank for that.
This is some pretty good basic work that I have not seen. Although, some of the cost assumptions seem a wee bit "optimistic", as UP would likely require a complete separate parallel track, at least on the Yuma Tucson main (as they have indicated they would want for any service in their ROW from Colton to Indio with the Indio-Palm Springs-Beaumont Pass services).
The number and comparison with the WashDot corridor seems reasonable for PHX to Tucson, a lot like the work Dr. Ron at UNMLC did many years ago, using basic gravity modeling.
How does $4.5 billion to carry your estimate of 19,000 daily riders compare in the FTA funding project "cost effectiveness" index scale?
I ask because the LA Metro UP-West Santa Ana branch LRT project at $3 billion for around 90,000 daily passenger trips came in some where around 50th (which was "fairly" good, and way better than anything in Salt Lake and the front range, with its special Senatorial political support, ever had) compared to other such projects potentially seeking FTA funding.
The other cost factor is this as an alternative to the cost of adding capacity to the I-10 corridor to carry 19,000 daily trips?
I ask this, because, this is one of the best arguments I have for RCTC to look at funding the Coachella RCTC "LOSSAN" ML service extension project. The potential freeway widening and disruption costs are getting so high in that corridor, that the estimated of the $1 to $1.5 billion rail line starts looking like a very cost effective and competitive alternative investment for that corridor.
So, how much progress has been made in finding funding for the PHX-Tucson rail corridor project since 2013? And/or what efforts have there been to acquire and preserve potential things like this station, and the existing ROW's, to keep those intact for future develop of this plan?
I've seen much worse analysis of projects, and poorer potential performance, that still got funded with enough political support.
But, as I told some of my old clients...when they got that look of "sticker shock" from the real costs of doing these things...the big choo-choo's are an expensive business.