Re: BART fanboy tokes a GG Bridge doobie in IJ
Author: FUD
Date: 07-17-2019 - 14:48
The LAT article is interesting speculation, but triggered earthquakes in the medium to far field are still a subject of research not a prediction (or even a forecast). It's interesting, because the gaggle of faults in eastern CA are all under some amount of stress and triggering could happen. But, the Eastern CA Shear Zone and Walker Lane don't have a single fault busting through that can offer the kind of slip needed for a very large earthquake. The 1872 in Owens Valley was big, but it was less than 8. Analysis of the San Andreas suggests a maximum on it of about 8 (1867 and 1906 were both under that, in the mid-high 7's). That's why the Indian Ocean quakes were a surprise; getting magnitudes that much over 8 from strike-slip movement is just something nobody expected. There's speculation that it was a new plate boundary being formed.
A large earthquake on the Garlock simply hasn't happened in historical time. Doesn't mean it can't, but the record just isn't there to make a decent forecast from. The Garlock does seem to be doing a good job of blocking Ridecrest aftershocks from getting into the Mojave Desert, though, and that's interesting in itself. How the Mojave works from a seismic standpoint is still not a settled question.