Oh nuts!

Speculation is one thing. And while we conjure up all kinds of scenarios as to what happened in each of these cases, perhaps we can have some interesting conversation. But what is the point of arguing pro or con about any idle speculation. Just present your own thought without flaming the other guy's. That is not to suggest that we should not critique various ideas; just remember that all the facts are not in just yet.

Not a single idea presented here will be missed by the NTSB. They are smart enough to realize them all, and a lot more we will never even think of. Plus they have direct access to all of the evidence - we do not. The investigators can and will speculate on every nuance of that evidence. But their speculations will not be idle, as ours will be. They WILL follow though on every possibility and then make a report of their findings, which will be available to all.

I suspect that many of us have a hard time with the now apparent ease in which railroad accidents can happen. It appalls me! We like to believe such things just can't happen, or are somehow rare - but they are not. So we seem to get into these "hand wringing exercises all too often. Or have there just been a lot of accidents lately?

All of humanity is rich with all kinds or errors, mistakes, misjudgments, lapses of attention and just plain stupidity. The possibilities for accident are endless in almost all industries. But rather than hand wring, we should involve our interests and collective talents towards solutions. I believe we will all find more satisfaction that way. And who knows, we might even contribute something of very real benefit should a new idea leak out to someone in authority. Especially one which has passed vigorous but respectful critique.

The more places the "Chain of Events" that leads to a potential accident can be broken, the less likely the accident will become. For example: how can we help the locomotive engineer maintain focus; how do we avoid lapses in judgment; how do we help them stay awake; how not to forget things; etc, etc etc. Break all the links in the chain - all of the time; and then there will be no more accidents.

I do not mean to pick on the train crews here at all. However, they are on the front line of defense. But it is just as important to do the same for potential mistakes by supporting personnel, such as track workers, signal maintainers and engineers, shop employees, dispatchers, etc etc etc.

Hmmmm; Seems like I am describing a very important management responsibility here - should be right up the alley of us Monday morning quarterbacks. I guess that the real managements had better get on with it too, and quit sticking their heads in the sand about helping employees avoid accident causing mistakes. The costs of doing so may be high, but it is truly just part of the cost of doing business - safely.