All of the economic "red lights" in the logistics indicators having been flashing bright red, and trending downward, for the last year of record stock prices... Port TEU's handled, RR TEU's, are down significantly, and RR carloading (over 80% from coal traffic decline, though).

Other labor and wage indicators, even the "good" employment data, in the last quarter, have shown no real wage growth, negative manufacturing jobs and hours worked, no overtime growth, and much of the job growth was the end of the auto strike (statistical blip), and from census hiring.

US investment in new plant and equipment has been either zero real growth, or negative (down something like 7 or 8 percent the summer quarter.. IIRC?) for the last 6 quarters. A drop like that, is also a giant flashing "red light"... Since C (consumer spending), plus I (investment in productive capacity), and G ("gubmint" spending, which with billion dollar a year deficit spending is at "drunken sailor" levels) make up Gross Domestic Product (the value of goods and services the economy produces). And, GDP rates of around 1 to 2 percent have been relatively weak. Investment level falls are typical of a recession and we have not seen falls like these since 2008-2009.

Layoffs and closures are being announced by the hundreds of stores, and tens of thousands of employee's (from Papyrus to Bed Bath and Beyond) in retail, with retail vacancy rates soaring (at over 20% in dozens of major urban markets) after an awful "brick and mortar" Christmas season this year.

Credit card spending (which should pick up that switch from "brick and mortar" to on-line retail) year over year in December was only up 3%. So, if you actually believe that 1.6% inflation rate you just got as a COLA (cost of living-inflation adjustment) in your RR Retirement or SSI check is real (and not higher?), then the underlying consumer credit card spending grew by less than 1.5 percent, in "real" adjusted for inflation dollars, which is a pretty weak, rate of annual growth.

The final proof of a recession warning, is that Jim Cramer is singing the hosanna's of the market going on with record highs and 20% year over year gains, forever.... Kind of like he was saying, when he was pushing Lehman Bros. in 2008.

Buy low, sell high is the normal investment rule... Cramer's rule for his infamous recommendation to "buy" Lehman, was to buy high, and be left with nothing, when the stock hit zero...

Price to earnings ratios have topped 30 to 1 on the NASDAQ and 27 to 1 on the Dow (with tax the cuts and "negative" interests rates to push up short term earnings...). But the average rate of return for the last 75 years has been around 16 to 1 for the Dow.

How much have you made in the last three years on this stock market.... And, how much did the "real" economy that's needed to supply future earnings to support those valuations rise?

Do the math, and look at history... And, remember to buy low sell high... Or, if you are thinking about shorting this market "sell high", and cash in, when these prices fall to reflect their future slow earnings growth, if things like the lack of capital spending, or these closures and layoff's, continue at the current pace.