Econ 101, yes, it will likely affect all oil producers...
Author: BOB2
Date: 03-09-2020 - 15:16

Of course it will, duh???

Yes, at a lower price, the quantity demanded of petroleum products demanded (like gasoline) will likely go up, but the quantity supplied will likely go down, all other things being equal... Just like they taught you in Econ. 101... It's called a "supply and demand" curve model, with price on one axis and quantity demanded on the other....

For "normal" goods as prices fall the quantity demanded goes up, and the quantity supplied, goes down, and when prices go up the inverse occurs. However, supply and demand can also be "independent" variables, as well, so when demand falls on its own, the price will drop, and as the profit incentive to supply more disappears, less will be supplied....

New wells will be put on hold, if they are unprofitable to drill at today's prices. If the recovery costs on operating existing wells are less than is profitable, those will be shut down, too. The fundamental economic principles will still probably apply, just as has happened for the last 161 years of the oil industry....

Now, the reason that prices have fallen is that "demand" is falling precipitously, due to other "exogenous" economic conditions like an unexpected economic "shock", as we are now experiencing. So while this is seen by some, quite rightly, as good for the consumer, who wills have cheaper gas, this only works if the consumer has the income, or a company doesn't have all of its trucks idle from a lack of order. And thus, since this reduction in demand, may also tend to lead to lower income and profits, and thus, result is still lower demand, and still lower income and profits... until we deal with what caused the shock and those effect dissipate, demand will remain lower than it would otherwise normally be, negating the "stimulus" effect of the lower fuel costs.

Which is, just maybe, why the oil stocks "cratered" so badly today... The choo-choo's, too.... We were already in a "logistics" and "manufacturing" "mini" "recession", based on actual shipping volumes, sales of capital goods, a drop in capital investment by firms, and things like overtime hours "worked" by skilled labor. These "numbers" were already pretty bad, well before this Corona "shock" hit.

My sense of this is that this economic "shock" finally just caused an awful lot of investors to realize just how overvalued and unsustainable this market had become at a 27-1 price to earnings ratio, in the face of increasingly likely falling future earnings... And, that political bull$hit and negative interest rates were not going to keep propping up those inflated valuations forever...

But, yes, like lower gas prices for consumers, there can be a "silver lining" for investors in such panics, as we also saw after the 2008 stock market crash. Because these do create opportunities to buy good stocks, at much cheaper price. Just make sure you don't follow Jim Cramer's, or Larry Kudlow's, excellent advise, and buy Lehman Bros...



Subject Written By Date/Time (PST)
  Will Crude Oil Price Slash affect Shale Oil Producers? Pdxrailtransit 03-09-2020 - 13:42
  Econ 101, yes, it will likely affect all oil producers... BOB2 03-09-2020 - 15:16
  Re: it will likely affect shale oil producers... Berg 03-09-2020 - 16:20


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