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Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
Author: Blob2
Date: 03-14-2020 - 17:53
BOB2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This recession was on the way, before the "oil
> shock", and the "oil shock" was already well
> underway, before the "oorona shock". Falling
> demand, across the board, was well underway, like
> those truck demand, rail TEU's shipped, the "trade
> war shock" related import and export drops, the
> drop in capital spending over the last two years,
> the 8% drop in manufacturing employment, the zero
> growth in overtime, despite supposed "full
> employment", radically slowing growth in places
> like China, partially due to the "trade war shock"
> (well before Corona...) ...were what was already
> caused weak world oil demand and weak prices.
>
> The Saudi's are fighting a very expensive war they
> can't afford, and the Russian kleptocracy is
> entirely propped up the oil and gas sales, so
> they've been undercutting each other to maintain
> "cash flow", and many countries don't honor the
> ban on buying Iranian oil, and you can't really
> tell it is Iranian, when it come out of the
> pipelines from Azerbaijan, can you? So they've
> all been cutting each other's nut's off to
> maintain cash flow.... And, of course with the US
> fracking having made the US again the worlds
> largest "free market" producer once again...And,
> with new finds like Guyana, and increased
> production from new recovery investment in places
> like Viet Nam to Angola, the market has finally
> collapsed.
>
> The impacts of this recession are now "baked in",
> and impacts on choo-choo's and other industries,
> and a whole lot of real folks losing their jobs by
> the tens of thousands as I write this, will be
> very serious. I suspect we will see many projects
> postponed, equipment procurement put off, and way
> less demand for things like pipe and fracking
> sand...
>
> With natural gas now closing at $1.88, with a low
> this week of $1.61, you'll see even more
> deterioration coal traffic, as the cost/benefit
> ratio of "writing off" the remaining coal plants,
> and shutting them down, or converting them to gas,
> increases.
>
> And, now for the really bad news about these kind
> of events, there is no "magic bullet" that
> politicians or central bankers can put in their
> guns to slay this vampire sucking the life out of
> the economy today.... There's almost nothing
> "monetary" policy (lowering already negative to
> inflation interest rates) can do about these kind
> of "exogenous" economic "shocks", no matter how
> hard one rants at the Fed Chair... And, fiscal
> policy ("gubmint" spending or tax cuts) can't cure
> diseases, or panic, nor are able to stop economic
> shocks "after the fact", and will, at best, only
> partially and poorly "cushion" the fall, after the
> fall has already happened... How many of you have
> ever found yourself earning as much on
> unemployment, as when you were making that extra
> overtime, working...?
Would you like some matches and gasoline to light your hair on fire now or later? After the sky falls.
-------------------------------------------------------
> This recession was on the way, before the "oil
> shock", and the "oil shock" was already well
> underway, before the "oorona shock". Falling
> demand, across the board, was well underway, like
> those truck demand, rail TEU's shipped, the "trade
> war shock" related import and export drops, the
> drop in capital spending over the last two years,
> the 8% drop in manufacturing employment, the zero
> growth in overtime, despite supposed "full
> employment", radically slowing growth in places
> like China, partially due to the "trade war shock"
> (well before Corona...) ...were what was already
> caused weak world oil demand and weak prices.
>
> The Saudi's are fighting a very expensive war they
> can't afford, and the Russian kleptocracy is
> entirely propped up the oil and gas sales, so
> they've been undercutting each other to maintain
> "cash flow", and many countries don't honor the
> ban on buying Iranian oil, and you can't really
> tell it is Iranian, when it come out of the
> pipelines from Azerbaijan, can you? So they've
> all been cutting each other's nut's off to
> maintain cash flow.... And, of course with the US
> fracking having made the US again the worlds
> largest "free market" producer once again...And,
> with new finds like Guyana, and increased
> production from new recovery investment in places
> like Viet Nam to Angola, the market has finally
> collapsed.
>
> The impacts of this recession are now "baked in",
> and impacts on choo-choo's and other industries,
> and a whole lot of real folks losing their jobs by
> the tens of thousands as I write this, will be
> very serious. I suspect we will see many projects
> postponed, equipment procurement put off, and way
> less demand for things like pipe and fracking
> sand...
>
> With natural gas now closing at $1.88, with a low
> this week of $1.61, you'll see even more
> deterioration coal traffic, as the cost/benefit
> ratio of "writing off" the remaining coal plants,
> and shutting them down, or converting them to gas,
> increases.
>
> And, now for the really bad news about these kind
> of events, there is no "magic bullet" that
> politicians or central bankers can put in their
> guns to slay this vampire sucking the life out of
> the economy today.... There's almost nothing
> "monetary" policy (lowering already negative to
> inflation interest rates) can do about these kind
> of "exogenous" economic "shocks", no matter how
> hard one rants at the Fed Chair... And, fiscal
> policy ("gubmint" spending or tax cuts) can't cure
> diseases, or panic, nor are able to stop economic
> shocks "after the fact", and will, at best, only
> partially and poorly "cushion" the fall, after the
> fall has already happened... How many of you have
> ever found yourself earning as much on
> unemployment, as when you were making that extra
> overtime, working...?
Would you like some matches and gasoline to light your hair on fire now or later? After the sky falls.
