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Re: Price of crude oil dropping, yep. Gas too. And, stock n Olive Garden... Less coal trains... And, maybe even less trolls....
Author: BOB2
Date: 03-30-2020 - 03:03
Diesel generation of electricity? Natural gas was at $1.60 per MBTU this week. That will make it very expensive to burn even cheap diesel. But, for RR's it will make natural gas over 2/3rds cheaper than coal for electrical generation, and has up to 60% less CO2 emissions, and is another "nail in the coffin" of coal. So get those coal train pictures, the long decline in coal traffic will continue, as more coal plants are closed or converted to natural gas.
Energy stocks have been the hardest hit stock sector in the Corona crash. And, the growing world supply of natural gas will continue long after the short term shut downs in oil production. At these prices, there will be a lot of cancelled projects. Which will likely lead to a lot of layoffs, and that's already happening in suppliers, and will be likely be seen very soon in reduced rail movements of things from pipe to fracking sand.
Since I've moved all of my stocks to cash, now that I'm retired, I'm really more worried about Olive Garden going bankrupt. I have a gag gift card for Olive Garden (which is good for the Yardhouse), which will be then become virutally worthless, if they go under. So, I'm checking to see if they are doing take out, today. Olive Garden, Cheesecake Factory and every other chain or no chain restaurant in the country is losing money. Then there are the REITS and banks who financed and built all of that retail that they are in, who will not be getting the rent checks at the end of this month. Many parts of he US was approaching a 20% retail vacancy rate even before this economic "shock", you could likely see that easily double.
I saw one of the reports on one of the money shows from somebody hyping this as short sharp recession, and claiming that we'll "snap right back out of it" very quickly, with the usual chorus of "the fundamentals are basically sound".... I think I seem to recall dimly when he was recommending during the last market crash as a great buying opportunity to pick up some Lehman Brothers at a really cheap price, too...
This recession/crash will likely knock a lot of way too overleveraged financial dominoes down. And, while UP looks real good compared to recent highs in February, this is not going to be a very "short" event at all, because some of those fundamentals actually suck (like corporate debt loads). It is likely to be a very "sharp" event for a lot of folks, who are now losing their jobs, about to lose their businesses, or have lost a lot of value in their 401k's.
There is one bright note. Putin can't pay his bills with $22 a barrel oil or $1.60 MMBTU gas. Vlad's murdering terrorist kleptocracy is propped up by oil and gas revenues. So, he is increasingly unable to "print" enough money to pay his pensioners, his creditors, or his military, in a country that already has a worthless currency. He has already had to cancel the referendum that would have made Vladimir President for life. And, Vlad has now been caught lying to everyone about the reported 50,000 plus Covid 19 cases in Russia (Ending the "fake news" that Russia had stopped this, which Vlad had managed to feed, like a giant Russian sausage, to both Fox and CNN, hook, line, and sinker). So with this latest blow to Vlad's finances, I am kind of hoping he will also have to lay off many of his trolls...
Energy stocks have been the hardest hit stock sector in the Corona crash. And, the growing world supply of natural gas will continue long after the short term shut downs in oil production. At these prices, there will be a lot of cancelled projects. Which will likely lead to a lot of layoffs, and that's already happening in suppliers, and will be likely be seen very soon in reduced rail movements of things from pipe to fracking sand.
Since I've moved all of my stocks to cash, now that I'm retired, I'm really more worried about Olive Garden going bankrupt. I have a gag gift card for Olive Garden (which is good for the Yardhouse), which will be then become virutally worthless, if they go under. So, I'm checking to see if they are doing take out, today. Olive Garden, Cheesecake Factory and every other chain or no chain restaurant in the country is losing money. Then there are the REITS and banks who financed and built all of that retail that they are in, who will not be getting the rent checks at the end of this month. Many parts of he US was approaching a 20% retail vacancy rate even before this economic "shock", you could likely see that easily double.
I saw one of the reports on one of the money shows from somebody hyping this as short sharp recession, and claiming that we'll "snap right back out of it" very quickly, with the usual chorus of "the fundamentals are basically sound".... I think I seem to recall dimly when he was recommending during the last market crash as a great buying opportunity to pick up some Lehman Brothers at a really cheap price, too...
This recession/crash will likely knock a lot of way too overleveraged financial dominoes down. And, while UP looks real good compared to recent highs in February, this is not going to be a very "short" event at all, because some of those fundamentals actually suck (like corporate debt loads). It is likely to be a very "sharp" event for a lot of folks, who are now losing their jobs, about to lose their businesses, or have lost a lot of value in their 401k's.
There is one bright note. Putin can't pay his bills with $22 a barrel oil or $1.60 MMBTU gas. Vlad's murdering terrorist kleptocracy is propped up by oil and gas revenues. So, he is increasingly unable to "print" enough money to pay his pensioners, his creditors, or his military, in a country that already has a worthless currency. He has already had to cancel the referendum that would have made Vladimir President for life. And, Vlad has now been caught lying to everyone about the reported 50,000 plus Covid 19 cases in Russia (Ending the "fake news" that Russia had stopped this, which Vlad had managed to feed, like a giant Russian sausage, to both Fox and CNN, hook, line, and sinker). So with this latest blow to Vlad's finances, I am kind of hoping he will also have to lay off many of his trolls...
