OK, I'll say it. Since video has now surfaced showing what may be substantial damage to the former WP lines presumably between the Pulga area to Keddie and beyond towards Portola and Westwood -

Does UP throw in the towel on the former WP line? There is next to no traffic originating or terminating between Elsie (ballast pit outside Oroville) and Winnemucca. The only substantial shipper that might be out there is shipping gypsum as fertilizer out if the old USG quarry. I'm not sure if Herlong is doing anything. So does UP just surrender based on the lack of traffic and it only being used as a secondary main route now? UP completely upgraded the WP when they bought it, then had to fix major flood damage at least a couple times. Rock slides have always been an issue in the canyon, no doubt they'll be far worse the next few winters (if we ever get another winter). Besides damage to any wood ties that may have burned, don't forget the bridges and all the other rail related infrastructure (signals, communications and buildings). Do any of the tunnels have wood linings?

So if UP were to give up the Feather River Canyon, where does that put BNSF? It is their primary west coast north-south route, but like BNSF they too have little local traffic between Keddie and Klamath Falls. Presumably they are going to suffer their own potentially substantial damage between Keddie and Greeneville, and if the fire keeps going towards Lake Almanor. If they only have to be responsible for their own repairs, I don't think there is too much doubt they will jump in and get back in service. But if they have substantial damage and UP walks away from the canyon, could they justify the cost of repairing the canyon below Keddie? Does UP make them a "smoking" deal on it? Or does BNSF hold out for trackage rights over the former SP route from Binney Jct (Marysville) to Klamath Falls? Could that route (with some improvements) support both railroads? When Dry Creek/Hotlum bridge is finished we just may get a preview.

Dumping Keddie to Binney Jct on the BNSF might be the best choice for the UP, even if they only get a $1 for it. If there isn't too much damage between Keddie towards Portola, UP could repair that and still keep access to a potential secondary route down the canyon though now at the mercy of BNSF though the sales contract could protect them to some degree. UP could keep access to the few local customers that are left (Quincy RR and around Oroville) while retaining a backup for Donner.

If this had been the old WP, I think it would have killed them financially one way or the other. Before Covid, PSR and increased environmental restrictions I don't think UP or BNSF would have hesitated to rebuild. Now - I'm not so sure.

This is going to be like watching a live TV show of an emergency room. You hope the patient makes it regardless of the odds, but no one knows the outcome until it happens.

And don't forget - the government might step in to "help". This could be anything from funding to ordering those richy rich investor companies to rebuild everything now on their own dime. Don't expect anything from PG&E if it's true a tree in their power line started the fire. The Camp Fire that took out Paradise already bankrupted them, ironically starting not that far away from the Dixie fire.

My thoughts. Anyone else?