You're basically correct about the cost structure of the Brightline/Vegas project, at least for phase 1. I'll be interested to see what they come up with for getting "over the hill" to Rancho Cucamonga, which is necessary but seems likely to cost a LOT. Though I think they eventually will want both routes into LA. It's still qualitatively different from the FL line, though; for good reason, but different.

As for CAHSR, yes, it should have had, and still should have, a real business plan. Unfortunately, being a political creation in its present form, any such plan wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on (or even the electrons wasted on reading it on a display). If such a business plan were, for instance, to suggest that 2:30 between SF and LA really doesn't serve a need, that 125-maybe 150 mph is enough to provide good access between the Bay Area, Central Valley, and LA, and that the money spent on anything more than, say, Acela speed would be better spent on some more improvements elsewhere (like the Coast and LOSSAN), that would be interesting but following such a plan would violate the initiative that set the whole thing up. So CAHSR is kind of in a political corner: it truly does make little sense to continue the way they're going, but if they stop and rethink the whole thing they 1) lose any remaining bond funds; 2) lose any remaining fed funds and might have to pay back what's already spent; and 3) might end up with a bunch of structures that will never be used, because the initiative probably won't let them run Amtrak on it (even though they should, along with maybe some Z trains). Arguably, somebody might be fired or even go to jail for not carrying out the initiative's mandate.

IMO, the work going on now should be completed. Wasco to Chowchilla, tying back into BNSF. Even the French HSR lines started out in the country and slowly moved into town as money became available. Then, spend the next increment of funding, whenever and wherever it appears, on dealing with the Tehachapis in some way; that's megaproject enough. We should have some kind of independent body investigate what has been done so far with an eye toward correcting the more obvious corruption - and there almost certainly is some. We then need to run some kind of ballot measure to restructure the whole mess (for which Mr. Kopp has to bear a certain amount of responsibility) allowing more realistic business and other planning. We owe that to our grandchildren, who will be the first ones to ride it, unless a restructured program can be made attractive to Brightline. Then get busy on really useful (sorry, Thomas) trains for the state.