Oil Prices and So-called "Experts"?

Most of the so-called "experts" in "think tanks" and the "media" seem to have missed the Fracking Boom, too. So maybe, I apparently do know more than some purported experts, from watching really stupid indicators, like tank car orders?

While some so-called "experts" in the media may have missed it, most demand predictions I've seen from DOE for the last two years predicted downward pressure on oil prices. These annually published reports noted this downward pressure would likely occur because of better fuel efficiency, rapidly increasing domestic US production (fact: we are number 1 again..), and slow growth economies in Europe and China.

Most of those making these predictions, to be fair, did not expect prices this low, which is a function of the Saudi's pumping a lot of oil, resulting in the current very low price.

Unless the Saudi's are prepared to supply the world at this price forever, the current depressed oil prices cannot continue for much longer.

That is likely, regardless of Saudi reserves, because it is production capacity and shipping capacity, not reserves that dictate market prices. The Saudi's are using (currency reserves) and losing (pumping at below equilibrium market prices) a lot of money every day, pumping and shipping at near capacity, apparently to screw the Russians and the Persians. And, my bet is that they won't be able to do it, or want to do it, for much longer, now that they have made their point.

I predict oil over $70 a barrel by May 1st? So if I don't know very much, compared to these "experts", what is your prediction for May 1st? We'll both watch the spot and futures markets, and we'll know who is right?

What do I know about Alberta? What do you know?

And, as to Alberta crude, yes, there are light crude fields, and a significant amount of that is used in Canada, or exported as refined distillate, but that is not the primary reason that has been put forth for Keystone. What Alberta does have and has been developing with oil prices over $100 is heavy crudes and tar sands. Like the heavy crude from places like Columbia and Mexico, this heavy crude needs high prices to maintain production, due to high cost of production, and low distillate yields. Part of this project intends to mix higher volatility US oils with heavy crude for some domestic use, but the primary justification is to get the heavier crude south.

And, no, I don't actually think that Keystone will be stopped, it will be needed in a few years. But, I think that much of the current economic justification, and the usual bull$#it about it providing some kind of energy security, at this point, is, a lot like Russian finances these day, down the tubes for a few years to come, at least.

The pipeline we do probably need to build right now is the trans Andean gas pipeline from Bolivia to the West Coast of Chile, so the tankers can take it through the, soon to be opened, Panamax, to Europe, which would end the Russian gas monopoly on most of Europe.

Now, I know you could even try looking up some these easier "facts" up on Wikipedia, when you start telling other folks they don't know what they are talking about, but maybe it's better when you just hit send and are able to show us your own particular level of expertise in these areas?

Maybe I don't know much?

I like trains, trains are interesting, and the things that affect trains are interesting, I've run trains, I've managed trains, I've planned trains, and I've only spent about 50 years being paid to do these things, so maybe it is possible that I really don't know nearly as much as you do?

We all have gaps that others can fill, and I'm old enough to admit that I may have once believed some stupid things I now know to be wrong, and have gained significant "experience" as a result often of learning the "hard" way. So, maybe I am wrong?

And maybe, you do know much more about some of these things. But, since you seem to attack the messenger, and don't seem to actually put forth anything of any substance to justify some of you more interesting views, we don't really know, do we?

I'll be happy to change my predictions and views when the evidence changes, like maybe when they start cancelling car orders for new tankers, and I haven't seen much of that, yet.