Re: What Now?
Author: mook
Date: 11-08-2016 - 23:30
Here are some logical if pessimistic projections, considering Trump and majority Repub in both Houses:
* Amtrak will shut down on October 1 (new Federal FY). Congress will not allow further money to be spend on it.
* All federal transit funding will shut down in either the coming FY or the next one. Might be delayed a bit to rewrite a couple of other laws making it easier, but expect a first hit right away. New rail transit work will stop by the end of 2017, and some operating lines will have to be closed for lack of operating/maintenance funding.
* Partial Govt shutdown in October, of indeterminate length. No more continuing resolutions.
* Market panic lasting a minimum of a month, with values down 50% or more at some points.
* Big container ports like LA will see major drops in traffic in 2017, with or without "tearing up the trade agreements," because the US economy will fall into a depression at least as deep as 2008-9. Railroads that depend on international container traffic will suffer. On the plus side, air quality in the LA area will improve due to less traffic and fewer operating industries.
* Railroads in the coal business will see an upswing as environmental regulations are rolled back, but to do things right will take a year or 2 so it'll be gradual.
* The courts (with a newly packed Supreme Court) will stop trying to enforce environmental laws, so oil trains will make a comeback after the small oil operators are driven out of business and prices go back up. Attempts to apply state and local laws will be quickly killed as applied to any kind of transportation business on "interstate commerce" grounds.
* The EPA and other environmental agencies will be kept around in a minimal form only to punish Blue states, after the states become unable to control emissions or enforce other environmental laws. Remember, Donald likes to hurt people who don't say nice things about him, and voting for anybody else is kind of the definition of that. EPA et al. can be really good at Hurt when they want to be (or are ordered to).
Anything else? Will we still have a country in 8 years (you really think he won't get 2 terms, and maybe even get rid of that constitutional amendment limiting Presidents to only 2)? Oh yes, and news said that when the Ohio results came in so many people hit Canada's immigration web site that it crashed...