In some ways a Sepulveda Pass "tunnel" to extend LRT or the Purple Line to the Valley makes more sense, than converting the SFV Orangeline Busway to rail, by spending as much as billion to add only 15,000 daily riders.

Both of these "San Fernando Valley" projects received "high priority" from MTA not because of any obvious transit demand, but because Zev had screwed up the original plans for LRT on the branch with his so-so performng busway, and because the City of LA demanded these projects to assuage Valley politicians, to garner political support to pass the sales tax measure.

A projected Sepulveda Pass rail line from WLA/UCLA to the Valley would begin with a connection to lots of demand in the UCLA-Wilshire corridor, but would end at what "transit hub" or "collector" on the SF Valley end? Is Sherman Oaks really a TOD center?

A transit extension via the Sepulveda Pass has never had much modeling that convinced me that there would be sufficient rail demand to justify what could easily be a three to four billion dollar extension even with only limited stations.

Travel demand patterns of the "origins and destinations" funneling through the Sepulveda Pass are far more diverse and dispersed going to and coming from multiple trip generators along, but mostly off of, the 405 corridor. These places would not, for the most part, be directly connected, like the LAX/El Segundo, or South Bay, and many trip attractors would not be served, and divert or create few new transit trips, due to the need to transfer to connections to those points. So I am waiting to see the kind of demand analysis that shows this "politically" included SFV Sepulveda rail project would work for the dollars we would need to spend.

I have worked in the past with folks like Bob Poole at the Reason Foundation looking at a toll funded freeway tunnel under Sepulveda Pass that would allow more auto capacity, which is dearly needed through the pass, despite the completion of the carpool lanes. Like so many projects in LA that provided me full employment for many years, the 405 carpool lanes have, thus far, shown no overall improvement in the congested travel times in that corridor. This is because travel demand continues in LA and SouCal to increase faster than capacity in the 405 corridor.

The two highest performing project that LACMTA has are the extension of the Crenshaw/Airport/South Bay line (opening in 2019), from the Expo Line to the Wilshire/Purple line Subway extension. This project would connect all of the Westside and mid Wilshire to the Airport, building a very cost effective project connecting to existing and planned rail corridors with very high concentrations of transit ridership.

MTA's second highest performing project would be the UP/West Santa Ana Branch (UP/WSAB) corridor terminating in Artesia, that would carry as many riders as the Blue Line at 90,000 daily for a $2.5 to 3 billion investment.

Ironically, the billion dollar extension of the Gold Line, which issued its first construction contract this week, and is the first "new" project from the sales tax extension is going first because Habib and the GL Authority had their act together and were ready. Although, the recent extension to Azusa is doing well, this next segment will, when I last saw the analysis be lucky to generate 10,000 daily trips. Which would make the GL Clairmont (Montclair???) extension about one sixth as cost effective, per dollar spent per added passenger, as say the UP/WSAB project would be.

Some folks would not like what I just said, as it might imply that some of our decisions on these things are not always made based on the best value that can be had for the taxpayer. but rather on politics..... Which is why I like AP.

To paraphrase Claude Rains: "I'm shocked to see gambling going on in this casino....."