Better yet, check out what SMART sent around to its email list:

In an effort to preserve its scheduled start-up of rail service in late 2014, SMART will seek to participate in the Federal Transportation Administration's "New Starts" program, which helps finance rail transit projects throughout the country. A successful application would mean SMART could get federal assistance to bridge the funding gap for the 70-mile SMART passenger train and pathway. In order to successfully compete for those federal funds, staff advised proceeding with the project in two sections, an initial "local project" and concurrent "federal project" to be constructed as an extension of the local project.
The "local project" would be completed, as scheduled, in 2014. The "federal project" would be finished and begin operation in 2016.

...

And

SMART staff and its design and engineering consultants will complete the work currently underway with Advanced Conceptual Design, which will help define the two sections that would make sense from both a local and federal perspective. That work will be completed by the fall of 2010, at which time SMART would define in detail the sections to be completed with local dollars and with federal funds. During that time SMART will consider the costs of each section, how the sections best compete for funds, whether other funding sources will play a role in the project timing and the willingness of the region - through the Metropolitan Transportation Commission -- to add SMART to its priority list of projects.

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Does anyone believe what they say anymore?

Seems to me their strategy is "build the least effective portion (the southern segment) with local dollars so that feds will finance the more effective (northern) portion."

that's not much to hang your hat on. If I lived in Cloverdale (maybe Santa Rosa), I wouldn't expect to see passenger rail service for a very long time...if ever.