Not sure about that. Audio magazine many decades ago had a musing about markets (during one of the big merger/consolidation periods in the stereo business), concluding that in a relatively mature but relatively unregulated market (which RRs are) there will be 2 1/2 competitors: two of about the same size or market power, and all the rest add up to about 1/2.

So by 2019 I would predict 2 markets: the Class 1's and everybody else. The Class 1's will be UP+who, BNSF+who, and the 1/2 made up of KCS, CN, and CP in some combination.

The "everybody else" market is all the short lines & regionals. The small fry are really in a different market from the big boys. I would expect there to still be a bunch of shortlines around, and even a few regionals (the ones that don't get absorbed into the 2 1/2 Borg). Catch is, most of them will probably be under one of 2 1/2 remaining shortline holding companies (there's that number again) with whatever that might imply for working conditions and variety.

All of this assumes that mergers get going again (seems likely as the economy improves) and the railroads remain relatively unregulated. If a new round of regulation comes in I could see a "too big to fail" reaction as now seems to be happening with banks.