Even a Reep prez would have a hard time justifying elimination of even the appearance of competition between BNSF and UP, which is all that is really left. BNSF's Transcon is their big intermodal line; they're not going to give that up.

The current follies (CP courting NS) are a Wall Street-driven thing. And offering less after you got sent home the first time for not having a sweet enough deal doesn't go over well. Hunter H. and his activist investors must have something else up their sleeve since they don't really seem to be trying very hard with NS (and didn't try again at all when CSX sent them home).

If the "final wave" of mergers ever happens, it will probably look like UP+NS (or CSX), BNSF+CSX (or NS), and CP+KCS. With of course some lines moved from one camp to another (and even to CN which has the old IC system) to more or less equalize access to the major business hubs. At that point, everybody will be a transcon, everybody will have access to the Gulf Coast oil/chemical complex in some way, everybody except CN will have some kind of direct access to Mexico, and except for a few long hauls from Chemical Country there will be no significant rail-to-rail competition. We can expect regulation to return in a big way at that point due to the clear monopoly situations (which investors will NOT like). And if they can find enough drivers the truckers will make out like bandits.