The Gold Line will make for an interesting experiment, with an average speed higher than the speed of the 210 in both the am and pm peaks, and large job concentrations in centers like Lake Avenue, Civic Center, Del Mar, Huntington Hospital, in Pasadena and Downtown LA, with real parking costs, commuters will have a reasonably competitive choice.

This line connects to a number of major junior colleges and colleges and improves access to those institutions. And, several of these cities have significant cultural, dining, and entertainment options in places like South Lake, and Old Pasadena. So the potential utility of the Gold Line is high in this corridor, and with these dense centers.

I expect a thousands more units in places like the Arcadia, Monrovia, Duarte, Azusa, and the Rosedales development, coming on-line in the next 10 years or so, because of the Gold Line. And several thousand more in Pasadena, are permitted, or under construction. Further east we will add another million in 20 years in the outer 210 corridor. So no I don't expect any real "relief" for those enduring the current conditions....as with BART, a whole lot of things would be worse, and you just wouldn't reasonably be able to go to more and more places as gridlock worsens.

I expect that, if MTA operates the Gold Line with current frequencies, with maybe higher weekend frequencies (which are now too infrequent on weekends and evenings), like modern like LRT transit systems do in most other countries, then we should see some reasonable ridership gains from the additional connectivity, and the higher speed on this line.

Travel behavior research tells us that wait times are considered to be three times the disutility (standing around wasting time waiting...) compared to in-vehicle travel times, for transit, and is the biggest deterrent to transit use by all classes of users. In cities with high transit usage it is partially attributable to much more frequent off peak, evening, and weekend service, which can dramatically reduce that wait time, as well as total travel time.

I think initially, that an additional 10,000 daily trips predicted isn't unreasonable after the first year. As this also is a hybrid commuter service, park and ride capacity will be a ridership constraint, as it is now with the Gold Line at the Sierra Madre Villa and Huntington Hospital stations. That's about a lane each way on the freeway in the am and pm peak, and with parking costs included at the primary end points, that's about the capital cost of the line.....

We spend about 3% of non commercial transportation related GDP expenditures on transit, and about 97% on auto's, gas, roads, parking costs, insurance, tires, and the like, and we get about what we pay for, in terms of travel shares.

It's opening soon, so we'll all know soon how it performs.....?