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Re: PIR goes Bankrupt-What does it all mean Mr Natural...?
Author: BOB2
Date: 10-27-2016 - 10:34
CEO's come and they go.... And, of course, the trolls, the loonies, and train haters just love this topic, too. But, I like trains, and have even participated in several of the studies to reopen the SDA&E to Seeley. So I may have a different take on the "long" most recent 25 years of history on this amazing, scenic, and historic RR line.
It looks like a way to write down and consolidate bad debt, while leaving the "lease" as the only "asset" to be "sold" off.... It looks more like the old team is out and the Baja team is in..... Not as exciting for conspiracy theorist's and train trolls, but probably a more realistic assessment....
This RR is in pretty awful shape, especially east of Tecate, but could still be revived to operation, if one is willing to spend enough money on it. But, I've always come back to the fundamental problem of why would anyone do it? Given that there is plenty of freight capacity on the LOSSAN, and just not that much traffic that couldn't go down to "mainland" Mexico, cheaper and faster via Nogales, or El Paso rail connections, it seems like an expensive investment to make for the likely future rail traffic base.
There is a potential for aggregate traffic on he eastern end of the line, but even this kind of low speed/high volume carload traffic, with or without a connection to the Baja line for an eastern connection, would require a lot of new rail, ties, tunnel repair, and drainage repair.
A higher level of "investment" would be difficult to envision, unless there were major (massive) improvements to handle containers both on the line, as well as at the Port of SD. These kind of improvements would be even more costly, and would, even if made, have great difficulty in attracting sufficient container ships to SD.
Every one of these scenarios has been looked at, in the 25 years of studies that have been done. And, the costs range from a low of about $45-60 million to get the line back into minimal operable state for any service, up to a billion dollars plus, for a fully CTC'd heavy duty container line.... And, while I do like trains, as a professional I can think of a whole lot of other less costly and risky choo-choo projects, that would probably pay a way better return on investment.
It looks like a way to write down and consolidate bad debt, while leaving the "lease" as the only "asset" to be "sold" off.... It looks more like the old team is out and the Baja team is in..... Not as exciting for conspiracy theorist's and train trolls, but probably a more realistic assessment....
This RR is in pretty awful shape, especially east of Tecate, but could still be revived to operation, if one is willing to spend enough money on it. But, I've always come back to the fundamental problem of why would anyone do it? Given that there is plenty of freight capacity on the LOSSAN, and just not that much traffic that couldn't go down to "mainland" Mexico, cheaper and faster via Nogales, or El Paso rail connections, it seems like an expensive investment to make for the likely future rail traffic base.
There is a potential for aggregate traffic on he eastern end of the line, but even this kind of low speed/high volume carload traffic, with or without a connection to the Baja line for an eastern connection, would require a lot of new rail, ties, tunnel repair, and drainage repair.
A higher level of "investment" would be difficult to envision, unless there were major (massive) improvements to handle containers both on the line, as well as at the Port of SD. These kind of improvements would be even more costly, and would, even if made, have great difficulty in attracting sufficient container ships to SD.
Every one of these scenarios has been looked at, in the 25 years of studies that have been done. And, the costs range from a low of about $45-60 million to get the line back into minimal operable state for any service, up to a billion dollars plus, for a fully CTC'd heavy duty container line.... And, while I do like trains, as a professional I can think of a whole lot of other less costly and risky choo-choo projects, that would probably pay a way better return on investment.
