Re: 64% in Favor of Banning Short-Haul Flights with Faster Train Options
Author: FUD
Date: 03-12-2024 - 10:06
The survey, if done by Hitachi, supports marketing efforts by a high(er) speed rail supplier.
As a practical matter, there are vanishingly few places in the US where the suggested approach will ever work. The higher-speed train service rarely connects well with airports, and serves (and will serve, even if CAHSR Phase 1 is ever finished) only a few corridors where airline substitution is remotely feasible.
Does that mean "forget this woke liberal stuff can't happen anywhere?" Of course not. It's already happening in France, where 1) high-frequency HSR connects to both major airports and city centers; 2) HSR is owned by the same government that regulates airline scheduling; and 3) the decision was made some years ago, and the regulations issued, to make it so. To a limited extent, it's happened already, at least as far as providing dedicated train-air connections, in other parts of Europe to a limited degree. Elsewhere? Possibly in China; but in Japan, the home of Hitachi, even, I don't think the Shinkansen reaches directly into or even immediately (with dedicated connections) next to many airports. And if you ever look at Japanese air traffic, you'll find a LOT of short-haul air travel using large planes (widebodies of various descriptions), not all of which are continuing on longer flights.
My theory is that, with adequate airport connections, CAHSR could eat the commuter airlines' lunch (United Express et al) on a competitive basis. To a degree, that's been the case in the NE Corridor for decades (Amtrak routinely runs around 50% market share with air shuttles between DC/NY), ever since the Acelas arrived and frequent fast Regional trains were installed. But absent some kind of regulatory process that doesn't exist in the US, I don't see that happening with through or in-terminal connecting flights, much, or in most of the US outside the NE Corridor and possibly Brightline in FL (in-terminal at MCO, and pretty close to MIA and FLL). So far, only the French seem to have gone the regulatory route; every place else, it's a competition thing, which sometimes the trains are better at while other times the planes are. That's life.