San Francisco is a big part of the problem. Gavin seems to have less interest in public transport than even Willie Brown. Geary Street cries out for light rail but was abandoned in favor of a botched Central Subway. At least if they had retained the original 3rd & Kearny route it would have been possible to cut under the Broadway Tunnel to a station at Van Ness and then deep mined to a station at Fillmore and Lombard. From there possibly cut and cover to Doyle Drive. I think there will emerge deep opposition to a subway down Columbus Avenue. But of course Newsom et al made no provision for a light rail ROW in the Doyle Drive plan.

I still think Geary Street is the preferred avenue of entree into SF from the Northbay with the end of the line somewhere close to the Transbay Terminal. The patronage potential on Geary is so much greater than Stockton.

As for the Northbay, absent NCRA-NWP, SMART will tire of its dmu's after a time and electrify. I hope they can find a resale market for the doodlebugs. I think in time Marin can be convinced to spend the big bucks to construct a BART style extension from Larkspur to Marin City, where there would be cross platform tranfer to buses to the City. I forsee Muni bus service coming in to Marin City as well. Getting tracks on the GG Bridge will take decades, long after I am gone.