At this point we still don't know what SMART can afford to build.
As it's own "Citizens Oversight Committee" reported
earlier this year, SMART does not have the funds to build
out the system as promoted in the fall of 2008. Some group (bikers) or some
city (Cloverdale) is not going to get service in the
first phase of build out. They simply don't have the funds
to do it and the lack of bond insurance isn't going to help.
Neither do the reduced projections of sales tax revenues.

Some SMART backers assume it will get federal funds per
Woolsey's earmarks.

The hitch is that SMART needs to complete a federal EIS
in order to qualify, something --- after all of these years ---
it still hasn't completed (although they insist they are working
on it). You'd think it would be easier since they finished their
state EIR in 2006 (and supplemental in 2008). The problem is
that the EIS has to be approved by the FTA and that includes
approving SMART's ridership projections. Rumor (and I mean
rumor) has it that they're fighting over the ridership numbers.
The Feds won't accept SMART's 5,000+ riders and SMART doesn't
want the public to know that it sold it a rail line to nowhere.

We'll only know for sure when SMART commits to issuing a bond.

No matter what, there's going to be a lot less passenger rail services
than were promised to the voters in November 2008.