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Re: LA MTA Blue Line $1.2 BBBBBBBBBillion Overhaul
Author: mook
Date: 01-12-2014 - 13:59
For moderate-sized things, the public sector does have a tendency to do minimum maintenance. Really big stuff, if done right in the first place, is maintained (GG Bridge?) because replacement is prohibitively expensive. After all, just based on inflation it would probably cost more than $10B to replace BART.
Equipment is another story. It wears out. And it isn't cheap to replace any more. In part, that's because with Fed$$ the purchases are in chunks that are separated by 30 years or more - Feds usually insist on rail equipment lasting that long before Fed$$ can be used again. So within only a few rail transit/passenger lines there's no ongoing stream of small to moderate purchases to keep a domestic builder in business. And you would need 3 of them to bid on most contracts. So to keep a builder operating the company has to be multi-national and move assembly operations around to meet the "Buy ____" requirements when an order happens.
Then there's inflation: I would expect prices to more than double if it's 30+ years between major work on a line and major purchases of equipment. Even an average inflation rate of a couple of percent will do that (look up 'compound interest'). On the plus side, LA has enough money, between their big local sales tax and Fed $$, to do the job.
I do find it amusing to see the Blue Line called the oldest LR line in the country. Perhaps if that is qualified as the oldest LR line built with federal $$ it might qualify. What about San Diego Downtown/Border, or SF, or a few lines in PA?
BTW, the Chinatown dig in SF is costing about $1B for only about a mile. Against that, $1.2B for fixing up the Blue Line and replacing the equipment is a bargain!
Equipment is another story. It wears out. And it isn't cheap to replace any more. In part, that's because with Fed$$ the purchases are in chunks that are separated by 30 years or more - Feds usually insist on rail equipment lasting that long before Fed$$ can be used again. So within only a few rail transit/passenger lines there's no ongoing stream of small to moderate purchases to keep a domestic builder in business. And you would need 3 of them to bid on most contracts. So to keep a builder operating the company has to be multi-national and move assembly operations around to meet the "Buy ____" requirements when an order happens.
Then there's inflation: I would expect prices to more than double if it's 30+ years between major work on a line and major purchases of equipment. Even an average inflation rate of a couple of percent will do that (look up 'compound interest'). On the plus side, LA has enough money, between their big local sales tax and Fed $$, to do the job.
I do find it amusing to see the Blue Line called the oldest LR line in the country. Perhaps if that is qualified as the oldest LR line built with federal $$ it might qualify. What about San Diego Downtown/Border, or SF, or a few lines in PA?
BTW, the Chinatown dig in SF is costing about $1B for only about a mile. Against that, $1.2B for fixing up the Blue Line and replacing the equipment is a bargain!
