the s#it hit the fan.......long before
Author: VS64
Date: 03-14-2020 - 12:44
BOB2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This recession was on the way, before the "oil
> shock", and the "oil shock" was already well
> underway, before the "oorona shock". Falling
> demand, across the board, was well underway, like
> those truck demand, rail TEU's shipped, the "trade
> war shock" related import and export drops, the
> drop in capital spending over the last two years,
> the 8% drop in manufacturing employment, the zero
> growth in overtime, despite supposed "full
> employment", radically slowing growth in places
> like China, partially due to the "trade war shock"
> (well before Corona...) ...were what was already
> caused weak world oil demand and weak prices.
>
> The Saudi's are fighting a very expensive war they
> can't afford, and the Russian kleptocracy is
> entirely propped up the oil and gas sales, so
> they've been undercutting each other to maintain
> "cash flow", and many countries don't honor the
> ban on buying Iranian oil, and you can't really
> tell it is Iranian, when it come out of the
> pipelines from Azerbaijan, can you? So they've
> all been cutting each other's nut's off to
> maintain cash flow.... And, of course with the US
> fracking having made the US again the worlds
> largest "free market" producer once again...And,
> with new finds like Guyana, and increased
> production from new recovery investment in places
> like Viet Nam to Angola, the market has finally
> collapsed.
>
> The impacts of this recession are now "baked in",
> and impacts on choo-choo's and other industries,
> and a whole lot of real folks losing their jobs by
> the tens of thousands as I write this, will be
> very serious. I suspect we will see many projects
> postponed, equipment procurement put off, and way
> less demand for things like pipe and fracking
> sand...
>
> With natural gas now closing at $1.88, with a low
> this week of $1.61, you'll see even more
> deterioration coal traffic, as the cost/benefit
> ratio of "writing off" the remaining coal plants,
> and shutting them down, or converting them to gas,
> increases.
>
> And, now for the really bad news about these kind
> of events, there is no "magic bullet" that
> politicians or central bankers can put in their
> guns to slay this vampire sucking the life out of
> the economy today.... There's almost nothing
> "monetary" policy (lowering already negative to
> inflation interest rates) can do about these kind
> of "exogenous" economic "shocks", no matter how
> hard one rants at the Fed Chair... And, fiscal
> policy ("gubmint" spending or tax cuts) can't cure
> diseases, or panic, nor are able to stop economic
> shocks "after the fact", and will, at best, only
> partially and poorly "cushion" the fall, after the
> fall has already happened... How many of you have
> ever found yourself earning as much on
> unemployment, as when you were making that extra
> overtime, working...?
Police and fire have overtime $$$$$$ in my city and houses SELL for north of $500000 EVERY SINGLE DAY FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS and all this is under the thumb of a 10.25 % small business killing sales tax.
Yet out of town "people" still arrive everyday and are glad to pay $3000 a month for a studio!
Things have gone to hell around here on a local level that has nothing to do with global events like opec "economics" or your favorite cheeto-in-charge.
Don't forget, China started slowing down before the factory strikes in 2012/13 and later imports were stranded in ships off the ports while the steamship companies died.
Things suck, yes.
Drink more beer and start living.
It's later than you think.
Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading?
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 08:52 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
BOB2 |
03-14-2020 - 11:17 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 11:33 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Smoke |
03-14-2020 - 11:45 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Dmac844 |
03-14-2020 - 11:48 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 11:54 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......Yemen, the Saudi "Viet Nam"....
|
BOB2 |
03-14-2020 - 12:18 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......Yemen, the Saudi "Viet Nam"....
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 12:21 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......Yemen, the Saudi "Viet Nam"....
|
KKK |
03-14-2020 - 12:26 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......Yemen, the Saudi "Viet Nam"....
|
KKK |
03-14-2020 - 12:29 |
the s#it hit the fan.......long before |
VS64 |
03-14-2020 - 12:44 |
@VS64
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 12:52 |
Re: OT...The Blood Orange Quarantini Recipe
|
BOB2 |
03-14-2020 - 13:26 |
Dirty Martini
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 15:34 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Blob2 |
03-14-2020 - 17:53 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
BOB2 |
03-14-2020 - 18:15 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Shortline Sammie |
03-14-2020 - 18:32 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
George Andrews |
03-14-2020 - 18:54 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Pdxrailtransit |
03-14-2020 - 19:46 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
Blob2 |
03-15-2020 - 05:56 |
Re: Oil Glut, Implications for Railroading? And, then the s#it hit the fan.......
|
BOB2 |
03-15-2020 - 08:42 |