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Re: As a matter of fact... And some other observations things still be announced on Friday, and on "why" Brightline...
Author: BOB2
Date: 12-05-2023 - 18:10
Steve Wrote:
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> Bob
> You should consult on that one and the
> Metrolink Santa Barbara commute runs.
I was working on the Santa Barbara commute runs back as fat as 2005. A Ventura County/based at Moorpark and/or starting from Chatsworth, or even downtown LA, to Santa Barbara/Goleta is feasible. The problem has always been 1) the UP, 2) the funding, especially operational funding, 3) who should be the operator.
It has taken nearly twenty five years to build some of the recent upgrades on LOSSAN north, and it is still all of UP's railroad beyond Moorpark. Ventura County has been cash poor due to no transportation sales tax, and Santa Barbara would find it difficult to bear the cost of more than one or two trains a day from Moorpark, with a lot of "dead time" for the equipment pool, and no off peak, midday, or evening services. And, back then (maybe it has changed with Daryl's influence and experience from VCTC???)Metrolink did not want the headache for so little additonal funding and low equipment pool utilizations, and the need for more capacity at Moorpark for train storage.
Meanwhile, Brightline got a lot more than I thought they would...
Brightline will be turning some serious dirt fairly quickly to get all of that done through Cajon, by the Summer of 2028.
Although, I am impressed by the simplicity of their design for getting over Cajont, and the fact that they will be using that high horsepower per ton ratio to climb the steepest parts of Cajon, at a good deal less than maximum speed, but that also keeps costs down, without impacting travel times so as to be uncompetitive...
Brightline is trying to find the right profitability "sweet spot", where you make the money needed to pay investors, not by building the most costly "speed regardless of cost" project to just spend taxpayer dollars like the CAHSRA fiasco has been intentionally "designed" to do.
And, I'm betting that they can get the $9 billion in financing, like they got the funding for Bightline Florida. Because of their track record of real outcomes, and because they can show it with good decisions like the Cajon trade offs. Which is quite unlike probability of trying to con private investors into financing anything the gold plated CAHSRA touches, without a guaranteed blank check to pick the taxpayers pockets, when the CAHRAS can't pay it back...
Apparently, DC to Virgina to North Carolina corridor improvements are getting a grant, as well...
Del Mar Bluffs is what I am also waiting to hear back on. Did removing Hasan help to reassure the Feds that SANDAG was not going to be in the newspapers over the management of it? So if anyone knows???
And, speaking of mismanaged bloated already infamous projects the Feds might not want to see in the newspapers all of the time...? With so much going to Brightline, what will the CAHSRA's "runaway money train" get?
My bet was no more than the funding necessary for tracks, signals, maybe electrification, to complete Chowchilla to Wasco, so we're not all stuck as taxpayers with the world's most exensive elevated concrete skate park... But, I had not anticipated or predicated that bet on this level of funding for Brightline...
So the announcement on Friday of all of the projects funded is going to be interesting...
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob
> You should consult on that one and the
> Metrolink Santa Barbara commute runs.
I was working on the Santa Barbara commute runs back as fat as 2005. A Ventura County/based at Moorpark and/or starting from Chatsworth, or even downtown LA, to Santa Barbara/Goleta is feasible. The problem has always been 1) the UP, 2) the funding, especially operational funding, 3) who should be the operator.
It has taken nearly twenty five years to build some of the recent upgrades on LOSSAN north, and it is still all of UP's railroad beyond Moorpark. Ventura County has been cash poor due to no transportation sales tax, and Santa Barbara would find it difficult to bear the cost of more than one or two trains a day from Moorpark, with a lot of "dead time" for the equipment pool, and no off peak, midday, or evening services. And, back then (maybe it has changed with Daryl's influence and experience from VCTC???)Metrolink did not want the headache for so little additonal funding and low equipment pool utilizations, and the need for more capacity at Moorpark for train storage.
Meanwhile, Brightline got a lot more than I thought they would...
Brightline will be turning some serious dirt fairly quickly to get all of that done through Cajon, by the Summer of 2028.
Although, I am impressed by the simplicity of their design for getting over Cajont, and the fact that they will be using that high horsepower per ton ratio to climb the steepest parts of Cajon, at a good deal less than maximum speed, but that also keeps costs down, without impacting travel times so as to be uncompetitive...
Brightline is trying to find the right profitability "sweet spot", where you make the money needed to pay investors, not by building the most costly "speed regardless of cost" project to just spend taxpayer dollars like the CAHSRA fiasco has been intentionally "designed" to do.
And, I'm betting that they can get the $9 billion in financing, like they got the funding for Bightline Florida. Because of their track record of real outcomes, and because they can show it with good decisions like the Cajon trade offs. Which is quite unlike probability of trying to con private investors into financing anything the gold plated CAHSRA touches, without a guaranteed blank check to pick the taxpayers pockets, when the CAHRAS can't pay it back...
Apparently, DC to Virgina to North Carolina corridor improvements are getting a grant, as well...
Del Mar Bluffs is what I am also waiting to hear back on. Did removing Hasan help to reassure the Feds that SANDAG was not going to be in the newspapers over the management of it? So if anyone knows???
And, speaking of mismanaged bloated already infamous projects the Feds might not want to see in the newspapers all of the time...? With so much going to Brightline, what will the CAHSRA's "runaway money train" get?
My bet was no more than the funding necessary for tracks, signals, maybe electrification, to complete Chowchilla to Wasco, so we're not all stuck as taxpayers with the world's most exensive elevated concrete skate park... But, I had not anticipated or predicated that bet on this level of funding for Brightline...
So the announcement on Friday of all of the projects funded is going to be interesting...
