Re: Spend The Money More Wisely
Author: FUD
Date: 12-29-2024 - 08:47
LOSSAN and CAHSR are aimed at different markets and timeframes.
LOSSAN is a going operation that needs to be maintained and improved. There is (or should be) no argument about that. A cost of billion$ for relocation in key areas, and ultimately electrification, is not surprising, and is in line with highway capacity expansions of any significant scope as well. That's just the price that has to be paid to keep the existing service available. Note that the speed limit on substantial parts of LOSSAN south of Fullerton is 90 mph not 79, though its questionable whether a single F59 or Charger can reach that with a 6+ car train for long given the number of stops and in places the grade. Fundamentally, LOSSAN improvements need to be prioritized for use of current funds, not long-term investment.
CAHSR is a long-term investment that, in part, supplements rather than replaces existing transportation options. Yes, it's had its problems, and some of them have been egregious and political in nature. But it is not just a make-work job. If they can clean up their act (and there is some hope that the new management crew is doing that), there is hope that the generational project of building a completely new, 200+ mph railroad can be completed at least in our childrens' lifetimes. Note that building the interstates took a generation, too, even though the technology was already standard - nothing new was needed but pavement. Big projects, even if competently managed, take a long time, especially if they have strong political opposition. That's a fact of life.
And it's not really useful to point at Brightline West as a shining example of the latest silver bullet. Yes, it is a good example of a new railroad designed to make money, and it is (in places) actually going to be high speed. But it relies on a number of relatively rare situations, including a freeway going the right way with enough space in the median in most places (so, with appropriate politics, right of way issues and costs can be minimized), and acceptance of low speeds at many locations, so the average speed while higher than driving is not as high as something clean-sheet like CAHSR should be able to maintain. It's well worth learning from what Brightline experiences and (hopefully) will be able to produce, and it's definitely worthwhile to question whether "true high speed rail" is necessary in many circumstances. The experience will not be entirely transferable to other lines, though. And note that BLW will *not* (at least for a while) actually reach Los Angeles, though the place they do terminate at makes sense for their business model. And note that the cost is still more than $10B (in round numbers, the cost inflated to today of the Bay Bridge replacement, or the cost of a relocation at, say, Del Mar on the LOSSAN once all the smoke settles), with a substantial part of that covered by public money in the form of tax-advantaged bonds and federal loans