From all the stuff I have seen it is still going to be really cheese. The incident it is supposably based on was a very complex series of events and they won't take the time to school everyone on how and why it played out. I am sure they came up with a simple cause and overlooked most of the safety protections that would have stopped it. The "event radius" I have seen talked about in the trailers is 45 miles. The only haz-mat shipment that might call for that big of an evacuation would be high level radioactive waste with explosion. The worst chemicals when spilled in large amounts call for around a 7 mile evacuation zone which could in the worst case end up being around 15 miles in one direction with wind, not 47 miles.