Very nice analysis, Erik. Agreed on GWI and the CORP. Not going to happen. GWI is very shrewd with their acquisitions, and is only getting into solid properties which serve growth industries, not decliners.
It would be much more likely to see one of the smaller consolidaters, such as Iowa Pacific or Patriot Rail, buy the CORP were RailAmerica to throw in the towel. These companies seem to be more willing to buy a line which is a marginal performer and work to rebuild the traffic, whereas GWI now seems to be at a point where they are making acquisitions of lines where someone else has already built the traffic, or it is a strategic link in regionalizing an operation (such as their latest lease of NS' line from Albany, GA to Hilton, GA).
Mike Derrick
[
www.shortlinesusa.com]