Carrizo Gorge definitely doesn't belong in the same category as NWP north end, Eureka-Redding, and the like. Yes, it crosses the border twice, but Toyota has a plant IN MEXICO near the border that could probably use rail service to grow - THAT'S the T. funding link, really. I suspect that T. isn't happy with the slow train up the trolley (assuming they use that at all - are they barging to Long Beach?). Granted the Gorge would also be a slow train, but at least it's going in the right direction and can operate whenever it makes sense not when the trolley's down for the night. So definitely not an easy route to put into service, but far better positioned for it than NWP-north and the like. Main sticking point if it goes ahead won't be the Gorge (or the $16m settlement by Toyota that's roughly the corporate significance of skipping a couple of latte's) - it'll be convincing UP to play ball.

I suspect San Diego itself will remain a BNSF town - to go the other way with any serious traffic you'd have to build a separate freight line to the border instead of sharing with the trolley (how much can you haul at 10-25 mph in 3 hours a night, and could autoracks fit under the wire?). BNSF provides decent service considering the amount of passenger traffic on the Surf line, and with a little finagling could probably handle more.