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Re: Global Warming-Ain't Science Fun?--But What About Railroads!
Author: BOB2
Date: 06-12-2008 - 16:33
Hipshot makes a very good point and cites a very credible study.
Solar intensity changes in visible light and infared can affect surface temperature levels. The problem is that they don't seem to account for the magnitude of the changes observed over the last 50 years. The small variations you cite have been observed, but are difficult to statistically differentiate from the range of random variation, over such a short time period. It is an interesting contributory variable, and the earth's wobble and changes in solar intensity resulting from this, does have some strong correlation to very long term glaciation (these cycles are over thousands of years, though).
The significant changes in long term mean surface temperature, noted over the last 50 years, do appear to be highly correlated to estimated volumes of man-made hydrocarbons oxidized, and these changes in CO2 measuements are documented in such things as ice core samples which trap CO2 samples. Some researchers have also identified natural CO2 releases from deep ocean releases as a possible variable in past global warming and cooling episodes. The volume being released from uncontrolled deep coal seam fires in China are another huge source of CO2, and this phenomena may be both man-made or natural. But a lot of atmospheric CO2 generally means a lot of upward temperature change.
Annecdotal changes in snow patterns don't actually mean much, but neither do statistically small variation in temperature over such a short period that appear to be correlated to solar flares, nor do I believe the authors intended this conclusion. It is another important piece of evidence to consider and to analyze relative to climate change. But, correlation, is not necessarily causality?
As to mini ice ages cited, these appear, in most cases, to be highly correlated to volcanic episodes, and measurements of solar activity before the 20th century, done in a systematic and measurable way are almost non existent. Observation and measuremnents in core samples of ice sheets, which also trap volcanic dust seem to confirm this liklihood. Benjamin Franklin is reported to have observed dramatic changes in the sunsets in Europe during the period of a "mini" ice age, now believed to have been associated with an extremely large volcanic episode in Iceland. As to the 9/11 effect, this was compared to long term solar intensity measurements from Germany, Switzerland, and Israel (where they were used to predict water evaporaton) which showed decreasing intensity over the last 50 years, and at first were dismissed, they support the theory of sun blockage phenomena, which actually appears to somewhat dampen the warming effect from CO2 increases.
Now, in regard to railroading, the UP double track project on the Alhambra main appears to be in full swing with survey crews busy in San Gabriel today (I don't "believe" these were working on the trench project, as I have not heard that contracts were let on this, as yet). This project is expected to be largely completed by 2010. Maybe then, my dismal UP stock can begin to produce the same results as my BNSF?
Scientific debate and railroads, who would have thought?
BOB2
Solar intensity changes in visible light and infared can affect surface temperature levels. The problem is that they don't seem to account for the magnitude of the changes observed over the last 50 years. The small variations you cite have been observed, but are difficult to statistically differentiate from the range of random variation, over such a short time period. It is an interesting contributory variable, and the earth's wobble and changes in solar intensity resulting from this, does have some strong correlation to very long term glaciation (these cycles are over thousands of years, though).
The significant changes in long term mean surface temperature, noted over the last 50 years, do appear to be highly correlated to estimated volumes of man-made hydrocarbons oxidized, and these changes in CO2 measuements are documented in such things as ice core samples which trap CO2 samples. Some researchers have also identified natural CO2 releases from deep ocean releases as a possible variable in past global warming and cooling episodes. The volume being released from uncontrolled deep coal seam fires in China are another huge source of CO2, and this phenomena may be both man-made or natural. But a lot of atmospheric CO2 generally means a lot of upward temperature change.
Annecdotal changes in snow patterns don't actually mean much, but neither do statistically small variation in temperature over such a short period that appear to be correlated to solar flares, nor do I believe the authors intended this conclusion. It is another important piece of evidence to consider and to analyze relative to climate change. But, correlation, is not necessarily causality?
As to mini ice ages cited, these appear, in most cases, to be highly correlated to volcanic episodes, and measurements of solar activity before the 20th century, done in a systematic and measurable way are almost non existent. Observation and measuremnents in core samples of ice sheets, which also trap volcanic dust seem to confirm this liklihood. Benjamin Franklin is reported to have observed dramatic changes in the sunsets in Europe during the period of a "mini" ice age, now believed to have been associated with an extremely large volcanic episode in Iceland. As to the 9/11 effect, this was compared to long term solar intensity measurements from Germany, Switzerland, and Israel (where they were used to predict water evaporaton) which showed decreasing intensity over the last 50 years, and at first were dismissed, they support the theory of sun blockage phenomena, which actually appears to somewhat dampen the warming effect from CO2 increases.
Now, in regard to railroading, the UP double track project on the Alhambra main appears to be in full swing with survey crews busy in San Gabriel today (I don't "believe" these were working on the trench project, as I have not heard that contracts were let on this, as yet). This project is expected to be largely completed by 2010. Maybe then, my dismal UP stock can begin to produce the same results as my BNSF?
Scientific debate and railroads, who would have thought?
BOB2
