=== Wrote:
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> "... needs many hundreds of millions of dollars of
> work to restore service..."
>
> You think that much just to get to Willits?
>
> I like Mr. Pechner's optimism. Gives a glimmer of
> hope at least.

So, let’s get in touch with the realities on the ground for a moment. The current price tag of the three mile extension to Windsor being built now and scheduled to open next year is $65 million. Current estimates to reach Healdsburg, the next major community up the line, are $118 million, which is down from a 2019 estimate of $194 million due to some cost savings and efficiencies they have found. This does include an estimated $17 million to replace the Healdsburg bridge. The latest total cost estimate to reach Cloverdale I can find dates from 2019 and stands at $364 million, though assumably this would be reduced to around $288 million or so given the reduction in the Healdsburg estimate in that time. So we’re talking something in the close neighborhood of $300 million just to reach Cloverdale, and we haven’t even started any real work yet. Now granted this money buys a commuter rail line far above and beyond what would be spent if rebuilding the line just for freight service, but commuter rail service is what is going to get the line rehabilitated to Cloverdale. If freight rail alone was capable of getting the line rebuilt it would not have sat unused for the past 23 years.

Which brings us to the next problem, SMART at present has no stated plans or intentions of expanding their service north of Cloverdale. The only service extensions I’ve seen discussed are to spend maybe a billion and a half or so dollars to effect a connection with Amtrak at Suisun. SMART is essentially having the line to Willits forced on them, it’s extremely hard for me to see them be interested in rebuilding any trackage north of Cloverdale for freight alone given that’s not exactly their core mission. That being said, it’s not unreasonable to expect that just track rehab on the line north of Cloverdale might cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $100k per mile if present rail can be reused up to maybe $300k per mile if new rail is needed, that’s based on some 12-13 year old off the cuff cost estimates. There are 55 miles of railroad between Cloverdale and Willits, meaning just track work alone might run $5.5-$16.5 million depending on how much work is required. What this doesn’t include is whatever costs there will be in repairing many washouts, rebuilding tunnels and maybe bridges, grade crossing protection, and whatever else is needed to recreate a subgrade where it no longer exists.

I’m all for optimism but its got to be grounded in reality, which in this case includes identifying how public and/or private funding can be obtained to put the line back in operation and then how the line would be maintained if it doesn’t generate enough revenues to cover those costs.

Jeff Moore
Elko, NV