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Re: How much traffic - really - on the Coast?
Author: OldPoleBurner
Date: 08-21-2012 - 10:40
> I'm sure the feds will make UP agree to this before they hand out the money,
> won't they? They will, won't they?
I sure wish they would! But the prognosis is not very good on that; as the track records of almost all public agencies, Federal and State alike, are really really bad. There certainly is no history of California getting its moneys worth on anything rail. And with the State consistently spending 10+ times what private industry is paying for trackwork and signaling, while NOT often getting all it paid for - It ain't likely soon.
Indeed, the fact that money is no object to California transportation agencies, portends an ill wind to private railroading nationally. With so many public agencies willing to inflate the price they pay contractors, private railroads will sooner or later be forced to follow suit.
Instead, railroads might be better off contracting with the States to directly run the wanted trains themselves; to prevent this unhappy side effect. Exorbitant State spending on each and every project; will sooner of later run up the market price all pay for trackwork and signaling.
As of yet, They (private railroads) wouldn't need to spend anywhere near as much and could easily underbid almost anybody - especially Amtrak. But this advantage won't last forever, unless they act soon the option will evaporate, along with their ability to buy and build their own track as well.
Too bad the likes of UP and others are so damn myopic. They still have the assets and the capabilities to do a real bang-up job for a State that clearly wants to spend all the money it can, but their dog-in-the-manger attitude blinds them to the opportunity.
But just think - if that should ever happen - the passenger train problem will be more or less solved, the way Nixon should have solved it in the first place. Of course, like any other company the state contracts with, remuneration for their services needs to be performance based, with all obligations enforced. A good performance measure - how many actual passengers can they attract, and how many on-time passenger miles are actually produced. The more they produce, they more they get paid.
Note the high probability that if enough rail passenger miles are produced, the less the State will have to spend on road maintenance and construction; and the better those no longer overloaded roads, will flow for the rest of those who still don't take the train (for whatever reason).
As hard as Amtrak has tried over the years - it still has not achieved sufficient traffic density on most routes to create economic viability; even while having to turn away multi-millions in additional business on most routes. It is beholden to fickle and usually myopic politicians, and stuck with impossible federal procedures; with no real hope of ever being liberated from them.
It is time for a new approach - what probably should have been done in the first place. Instead of nationalization, the states, with some federal oversight and coordination (and some funding for interstate routes), should have contracted for those rail services they deemed to be needed.
As it is currently constituted - there is no real hope for Amtrak in the long term. The sooner we make an orderly transition to something similar to this, the sooner we will be able to enjoy a truly viable passenger rail network. It should have been done in the first place
OPB
> won't they? They will, won't they?
I sure wish they would! But the prognosis is not very good on that; as the track records of almost all public agencies, Federal and State alike, are really really bad. There certainly is no history of California getting its moneys worth on anything rail. And with the State consistently spending 10+ times what private industry is paying for trackwork and signaling, while NOT often getting all it paid for - It ain't likely soon.
Indeed, the fact that money is no object to California transportation agencies, portends an ill wind to private railroading nationally. With so many public agencies willing to inflate the price they pay contractors, private railroads will sooner or later be forced to follow suit.
Instead, railroads might be better off contracting with the States to directly run the wanted trains themselves; to prevent this unhappy side effect. Exorbitant State spending on each and every project; will sooner of later run up the market price all pay for trackwork and signaling.
As of yet, They (private railroads) wouldn't need to spend anywhere near as much and could easily underbid almost anybody - especially Amtrak. But this advantage won't last forever, unless they act soon the option will evaporate, along with their ability to buy and build their own track as well.
Too bad the likes of UP and others are so damn myopic. They still have the assets and the capabilities to do a real bang-up job for a State that clearly wants to spend all the money it can, but their dog-in-the-manger attitude blinds them to the opportunity.
But just think - if that should ever happen - the passenger train problem will be more or less solved, the way Nixon should have solved it in the first place. Of course, like any other company the state contracts with, remuneration for their services needs to be performance based, with all obligations enforced. A good performance measure - how many actual passengers can they attract, and how many on-time passenger miles are actually produced. The more they produce, they more they get paid.
Note the high probability that if enough rail passenger miles are produced, the less the State will have to spend on road maintenance and construction; and the better those no longer overloaded roads, will flow for the rest of those who still don't take the train (for whatever reason).
As hard as Amtrak has tried over the years - it still has not achieved sufficient traffic density on most routes to create economic viability; even while having to turn away multi-millions in additional business on most routes. It is beholden to fickle and usually myopic politicians, and stuck with impossible federal procedures; with no real hope of ever being liberated from them.
It is time for a new approach - what probably should have been done in the first place. Instead of nationalization, the states, with some federal oversight and coordination (and some funding for interstate routes), should have contracted for those rail services they deemed to be needed.
As it is currently constituted - there is no real hope for Amtrak in the long term. The sooner we make an orderly transition to something similar to this, the sooner we will be able to enjoy a truly viable passenger rail network. It should have been done in the first place
OPB
