That other board that shall not be named had a recent thread about the BNSF HiLine, the old GN across Montana. This is the time of year that things normally get interesting as the grain rush is in full swing, as well as Intermodal traffic related to restocking WalMarts for Christmas with all the Chinese junk. It was suggested that crews were turning on their rest, power might be getting short and trains weren't making their terminals and tying up in sidings - all warning signs of a melt down. There was also a thread that MRL (the old NP south of the GN) was also hiring engineers, suggesting they may be also have a traffic increase possibly due to BNSF diverting more traffic to them. MRL's website confirms they are attempting to hire experienced engineers. Both of these railroads can take a substantial hit if there is a blizzard or extended below zero weather.

Question - Is the BNSF in the North just really busy and close to capacity, or are the warning signs of a meltdown happening now?

Here are some things to consider. The traffic patterns have changed in the last few years, as drilling supplies (frac sand, pipe, etc) are now in the mix, as is crude oil units headed in all directions to refineries. While coal may be down freeing up some engines and maybe some crews to loan out, there is now also coal moving to Pacific Coast ports (primarily in BC) for export, and I believe some of this is now across the HiLine. So it is conceivable that BNSF might be reaching capacity based on currently available assets.

Another consideration is what effect the oil boom is having on available labor. BNSF and especially MRL are used to hiring locals to work in the region, later promoting them into train and engine service. I know many of the track crews need 20 years of seniority to work all year, or they have to work out of their home region on a system gang. BNSF in North Dakota and eastern Montana is now having to compete with oil boom jobs for local qualified candidates, and this might also affect MRL on the east end. This is not an easy territory to railroad in the winter, and is hard on people and equipment. It won't do them any good to try to hire outside experienced help, because housing in the boom area is extremely scarce and expensive. Union agreements typically restrict a railroad from offering bonuses or raising pay scales to compete. "Borrow Outs", "Mercenaries" or whatever you want to call temporary employees from within or outside the company may not be that easy. The increased crew districts will require any experienced conductor or engineer new to the area potentially many weeks for to qualify on the territory, and union rules typically won't allow them to be restricted to yard service or a limited territory. And, motel rooms are also in short supply so the railroad is going to have issues just trying to house any temporary crews.

Regardless how much money you are willing to throw at the problem, it does take time to build up resources. Is this all just smoke and rumors, or is there a real chance of a "perfect storm" in this region? Comments or additional info?