Re: Falling oil prices will increase demand and cause recession?
Author: BOB2
Date: 12-16-2014 - 16:11

Gasoline demand is very inelastic, we don't change our behavior that much in response to price changes, either up or down. That's why they are able to gouge us with high prices (we have to keep driving to work regardless of price), but conversely, why when demand slows or supply increases only a little, the price of gasoline falls precipitously.

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) may rise very marginally with these lower prices, but not substantially. Actual VMT levels have actually fallen well below 2007 levels for the last 6 years, and are now only beginning to recover, much less show much growth. The average vehicle fleet economy has dramatically improved, and even this year with a slight predicted increase in VMT, gasoline consumption has actually fallen. These factors lead to less demand, which is also partially responsible for these lower prices.

High oil prices for diesel affect RR's as much as trucking and both benefit from lower fuel prices.

I don't really understand the part about the China part or how these lower gasoline prices causing a recession, but maybe it's just all the course in mathematical economics I once took. Since this amounts to about the equivalent of a $100 billion dollar tax cut directly into to consumers pockets across almost all income groups, it should indeed increase demand, for all other goods, not just Chinese.

Maybe you just didn't realize this extra real income can also increase demand for trips to Disneyland, going to things like Winterrail, taking a trip on the Grand Canyon Railway, replacing the water heater, paying the baby sitter, and/or taking a date out to dinner?

This oil company consumer "rebate" actually increases the level of output of these goods and services, which increases employment, and increases GDP, mostly in the U.S. of A.. Which is something hardly likely to cause a recession here....?

Oligopolistic resource purveyors (Russian goons, Saudi sheiks, Exxon executives....) are not your friends. They generally are less subject to market forces, and are able to control supply to manipulate markets, almost always charging a higher than a competitive market price for their commodity, and almost always at the consumers expense.

So when the tables do occasionally turn on ass pirates like these, say thank you to Exxon for the rebate, after years of ripping you off, and go spend it on whatever you really want to, instead.

EGBOK



Subject Written By Date/Time (PST)
  Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? EF Hutton 12-16-2014 - 00:31
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? J 12-16-2014 - 05:19
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? BOB2 12-16-2014 - 09:37
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? Fred 12-16-2014 - 11:38
  Re: Falling oil prices will increase demand and cause recession? BOB2 12-16-2014 - 16:11
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? Goober 12-16-2014 - 16:37
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? mook 12-16-2014 - 17:56
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? trainjunkie 12-16-2014 - 20:28
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? mook 12-20-2014 - 08:50
  Re: Falling oil prices will ease BNSF backlog? BN Oly 12-16-2014 - 21:45


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