 |
Re: XpressWest/DesertXpress rises again - with Chinese backing this time
Author: mook
Date: 09-18-2015 - 09:39
Looking at older stuff on the Xpresswest web site, it appears that their scheme for the Palmdale connection assumed, at minimum, a transfer at the Palmdale CAHSR station to CAHSR trains. Reading further between the lines, they might have wanted, eventually, a direct connection so they could run through trains into LA and up the Valley.
That concept is still good, and the ability to do it might be an argument in favor of the CAHSR Palmdale routing (a better argument than access to an airport that isn't used, IMO). But timing ... given the current state of CAHSR plans and financing, I don't think any completion date for the PMD-LA connection can be assumed - if you want to be optimistic, somewhere in the 20 years from now timeframe? That won't work if the Chinese buy in to XW and construction starts soon (which it can from Victorville to LV - fully cleared environmentally and most of the details for using Federal land and parts of the I-15 r/w are done too). They could be ready to run on the initial segment in 5 years or less, and make it to Palmdale (with or without High Desert Corridor) in less than 10. So would XW perhaps offer to build the PMD-LA (or BUR) leg of CAHSR with a promise from CAHSR to buy it later whenever they get over the Tehachapis? Or maybe to build and own it, and grant CAHSR trackage rights when they someday make a connection? Interesting PPP possibilities there.
Another thought: CAHSR so far seems to be actively uninterested in Chinese participation. But XW sees money and off-the-shelf trains that would let it get going quickly. That sets up the potential, if XW uses CAHSR to get into LA, for multiple types of trains running on the line. Presumably, if all are designed to standards, they should be interoperable, but what could PB and later contractors/regulators do to foul that up? If I understand China's setup correctly, their trains are derived at least in part from Siemens stock, and the lines themselves follow typical French design standards though aligned in general for higher speeds, so compatibility with European trains shouldn't be a problem in principle.
Interesting speculations, but the best thing is that since XW is private and has so far followed all the rules successfully (losing their federal loan, which the Chinese money should replace, mainly for political reasons) many of the usual arguments against HSR ring a bit hollow. Might there be life after CAHSR? Could CA actually have an HSR line carrying real passengers by the time Texas gets theirs (also with a private line that has some conceptual difficulties regarding endpoints)?
That concept is still good, and the ability to do it might be an argument in favor of the CAHSR Palmdale routing (a better argument than access to an airport that isn't used, IMO). But timing ... given the current state of CAHSR plans and financing, I don't think any completion date for the PMD-LA connection can be assumed - if you want to be optimistic, somewhere in the 20 years from now timeframe? That won't work if the Chinese buy in to XW and construction starts soon (which it can from Victorville to LV - fully cleared environmentally and most of the details for using Federal land and parts of the I-15 r/w are done too). They could be ready to run on the initial segment in 5 years or less, and make it to Palmdale (with or without High Desert Corridor) in less than 10. So would XW perhaps offer to build the PMD-LA (or BUR) leg of CAHSR with a promise from CAHSR to buy it later whenever they get over the Tehachapis? Or maybe to build and own it, and grant CAHSR trackage rights when they someday make a connection? Interesting PPP possibilities there.
Another thought: CAHSR so far seems to be actively uninterested in Chinese participation. But XW sees money and off-the-shelf trains that would let it get going quickly. That sets up the potential, if XW uses CAHSR to get into LA, for multiple types of trains running on the line. Presumably, if all are designed to standards, they should be interoperable, but what could PB and later contractors/regulators do to foul that up? If I understand China's setup correctly, their trains are derived at least in part from Siemens stock, and the lines themselves follow typical French design standards though aligned in general for higher speeds, so compatibility with European trains shouldn't be a problem in principle.
Interesting speculations, but the best thing is that since XW is private and has so far followed all the rules successfully (losing their federal loan, which the Chinese money should replace, mainly for political reasons) many of the usual arguments against HSR ring a bit hollow. Might there be life after CAHSR? Could CA actually have an HSR line carrying real passengers by the time Texas gets theirs (also with a private line that has some conceptual difficulties regarding endpoints)?
