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Re: Max knows.... The use of analysis versus proctology in planning.... And, that's why I'm going with Branson.......
Author: BOB2
Date: 09-01-2019 - 09:46
What is it Max about every 15 minutes from Zurich to Basel, express, at peak?
I have a time series of LOSSAN charts that show this phenomena, and I have string lines, with ridership, that show the "multiplier" in demand growth, as a function of service frequency. And, there are literally dozens of published academic papers, showing that service frequency (can I go and arrive at my destination, when I want to go and I need to arrive)is a more important and more "robust" variable, in predicting passenger travel demand, than the average trip speed (although it is important, too).
I'm still going with Branson and Virgin. I've worked with and met with the DX team before I retired, and I met numerous times, and attended numerous meetings, with the utterly obsequious incompetent toady staff and the ("mis")management of the CAHSRA.
One group of folks were and are business people who did good market research and had a well defined plan that understood "transportation economics 101" fundamentals, and had a solid , affordable, and doable project, to meet the needs they identified. The other group were, all too often, political hacks and hangers on, who could show no real or credible demand analysis of any kind, but were long on big talk and visions, and a goal of building a really fast train, regardless of cost to the taxpayer, or any of CA's real identified transportation "needs".
One group had done its "due diligence", the other group practiced proctology, and pulled it out of their a$$es, and when that was shown to be crap, they threw some more money at more consultants, to pull a fresh load out...
Based on the lies published about a full funding commitment to "Phase A" LAUPT run-through project being in place (that would definitely come as welcome news to the locals who have to put it under contract, if it really were true...), it appears they are still using proctologist's as consultants.
I suspect that Virgin America will go ahead with the plan they have and documentation for the segment from Victorville to Las Vegas, including eventual electrification, and build to the current design standards, for a sustainable 140 high frequency operation.
I suspect that they will phase electrification, to be done it "steps" and to implement electrification with the construction of the connection to Lancaster, using the high desert corridor project ROW. I suspect that they will be able to initially start services more quickly, using Siemens 125 sets to implement operations, in the interim, which will generate traffic and cash flow, so they can finance the next "phases".
I have a time series of LOSSAN charts that show this phenomena, and I have string lines, with ridership, that show the "multiplier" in demand growth, as a function of service frequency. And, there are literally dozens of published academic papers, showing that service frequency (can I go and arrive at my destination, when I want to go and I need to arrive)is a more important and more "robust" variable, in predicting passenger travel demand, than the average trip speed (although it is important, too).
I'm still going with Branson and Virgin. I've worked with and met with the DX team before I retired, and I met numerous times, and attended numerous meetings, with the utterly obsequious incompetent toady staff and the ("mis")management of the CAHSRA.
One group of folks were and are business people who did good market research and had a well defined plan that understood "transportation economics 101" fundamentals, and had a solid , affordable, and doable project, to meet the needs they identified. The other group were, all too often, political hacks and hangers on, who could show no real or credible demand analysis of any kind, but were long on big talk and visions, and a goal of building a really fast train, regardless of cost to the taxpayer, or any of CA's real identified transportation "needs".
One group had done its "due diligence", the other group practiced proctology, and pulled it out of their a$$es, and when that was shown to be crap, they threw some more money at more consultants, to pull a fresh load out...
Based on the lies published about a full funding commitment to "Phase A" LAUPT run-through project being in place (that would definitely come as welcome news to the locals who have to put it under contract, if it really were true...), it appears they are still using proctologist's as consultants.
I suspect that Virgin America will go ahead with the plan they have and documentation for the segment from Victorville to Las Vegas, including eventual electrification, and build to the current design standards, for a sustainable 140 high frequency operation.
I suspect that they will phase electrification, to be done it "steps" and to implement electrification with the construction of the connection to Lancaster, using the high desert corridor project ROW. I suspect that they will be able to initially start services more quickly, using Siemens 125 sets to implement operations, in the interim, which will generate traffic and cash flow, so they can finance the next "phases".
