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So Brightline Vegas is estimated at $12 billion, but you claim Inland Empire-PHX would be $100 billion to build?
Author: U sure bout that?
Date: 02-10-2024 - 17:24
laff trak Wrote:
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> at more than $100B to build and fairly high
> operating cost even if it's mostly in/near I-10,
> with perhaps as small discount if CAHSR covers the
> job as far as I-15 for you, someday.
Brightline 218 miles all fwy median Rancho Cuc-Vegas budgeted at $12 billion. $55 million per mile electrified. 372 miles LA-PHX at that average would be $20.5 billion.
But we are talking probably 20 years from now for an LA-PHX corridor, which we agree is probably not a high priority corridor for Brightline or similar ventures. So LA-Fullerton may be plug-n-play. Isn't LA-Fullerton-OC the first corridor proposed for Metrolink electrification?
For PHX-Riverside the most expensive construction would be the 212 fwy median miles Indio to near Buckeye. So call that $12 billion electrified.
The most likely 20+ years from now timeline could see Buckeye-Phx as already commuter rail. Close to plug and play for diesel. Shared double track with UP and maybe some sidings for industry locals to work off of should be good enough. No grade separations, run at 90 to 110 mph max. We're only talking 6 to 10 trains each way added. Tucson-PHX is likely already existing, a regional-commuter rail hybrid probably extended to either Surprise or Buckeye. The region and state likely also construct the 3rd leg of the easy commuter rail network for PHX. As part of the promise to secure votes for the sales tax or other funding mechanism. State and local likely to see commuter rail of more utility than an intercity corridor to LA. But once in place PHX-Buckeye it makes Buckeye-Indio more politically feasible. Maybe $1 to 2 billion including wires.
Indio to Colton would not be much different in design and cost than as part of the LA-Palm Springs/Indio plans for a true corridor. 2 or 3 trains a day might share tracks with UP but 6-10 would do better with a separate track. Little extra cost for that over UP's stance of requiring triple track they dispatch. A Frontrunner style separate parallel passenger line would be more reliable and faster for not much extra cost. Help my memory, didn't Bob2 argue for a goal of corridor style service LA-PS/I of 6+ a day each way at maturity? So really we are talking about the incremental costs of Indio-PHX.
70 miles Indio-Colton in UP ROW doesn't require HSR costs, closer to regional rail. 25 miles Beaumont-Colton more engineering than east of Beaumont, but entire 70 miles should come in under $2-3 billion including wires. Only 6 grade crossings Beaumont-Indio, so a future upgrade to a sealed corridor in that section would only require 4 separations and 2 closures. That and some curve adjustments could save :05-:10, let's call Indio-Colton 3 billion if electric.
For diesels mostly plug and play on Metrolink improved line Colton-Fullerton-LA. Especially 20 years from now. Only 6 to 10 trains each way added, similar to if only a LA-PS/Indio regional corridor at buildout. With wires gets costly for how many tracks are included. 4th track added and run 2 as mostly passenger only, similar to Fullerton-Hobart plans? $1 to 2 billion wired?
Maybe $17-19 billion all in for electric LA-PHX, good for under 4 hours PHX-Fullerton and Buckeye-LA. Possibly LA-PHX. Several billion less for a phase 1 diesel corridor.
Expensive, maybe too expensive. But nowhere close to $100 billion.
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> at more than $100B to build and fairly high
> operating cost even if it's mostly in/near I-10,
> with perhaps as small discount if CAHSR covers the
> job as far as I-15 for you, someday.
Brightline 218 miles all fwy median Rancho Cuc-Vegas budgeted at $12 billion. $55 million per mile electrified. 372 miles LA-PHX at that average would be $20.5 billion.
But we are talking probably 20 years from now for an LA-PHX corridor, which we agree is probably not a high priority corridor for Brightline or similar ventures. So LA-Fullerton may be plug-n-play. Isn't LA-Fullerton-OC the first corridor proposed for Metrolink electrification?
For PHX-Riverside the most expensive construction would be the 212 fwy median miles Indio to near Buckeye. So call that $12 billion electrified.
The most likely 20+ years from now timeline could see Buckeye-Phx as already commuter rail. Close to plug and play for diesel. Shared double track with UP and maybe some sidings for industry locals to work off of should be good enough. No grade separations, run at 90 to 110 mph max. We're only talking 6 to 10 trains each way added. Tucson-PHX is likely already existing, a regional-commuter rail hybrid probably extended to either Surprise or Buckeye. The region and state likely also construct the 3rd leg of the easy commuter rail network for PHX. As part of the promise to secure votes for the sales tax or other funding mechanism. State and local likely to see commuter rail of more utility than an intercity corridor to LA. But once in place PHX-Buckeye it makes Buckeye-Indio more politically feasible. Maybe $1 to 2 billion including wires.
Indio to Colton would not be much different in design and cost than as part of the LA-Palm Springs/Indio plans for a true corridor. 2 or 3 trains a day might share tracks with UP but 6-10 would do better with a separate track. Little extra cost for that over UP's stance of requiring triple track they dispatch. A Frontrunner style separate parallel passenger line would be more reliable and faster for not much extra cost. Help my memory, didn't Bob2 argue for a goal of corridor style service LA-PS/I of 6+ a day each way at maturity? So really we are talking about the incremental costs of Indio-PHX.
70 miles Indio-Colton in UP ROW doesn't require HSR costs, closer to regional rail. 25 miles Beaumont-Colton more engineering than east of Beaumont, but entire 70 miles should come in under $2-3 billion including wires. Only 6 grade crossings Beaumont-Indio, so a future upgrade to a sealed corridor in that section would only require 4 separations and 2 closures. That and some curve adjustments could save :05-:10, let's call Indio-Colton 3 billion if electric.
For diesels mostly plug and play on Metrolink improved line Colton-Fullerton-LA. Especially 20 years from now. Only 6 to 10 trains each way added, similar to if only a LA-PS/Indio regional corridor at buildout. With wires gets costly for how many tracks are included. 4th track added and run 2 as mostly passenger only, similar to Fullerton-Hobart plans? $1 to 2 billion wired?
Maybe $17-19 billion all in for electric LA-PHX, good for under 4 hours PHX-Fullerton and Buckeye-LA. Possibly LA-PHX. Several billion less for a phase 1 diesel corridor.
Expensive, maybe too expensive. But nowhere close to $100 billion.
