Re: Coal To Longview? - link
Author: Mark Meyer
Date: 11-18-2010 - 18:03

Bruce,

My intent was only to put some numbers behind your original statement, "those 2008 figures for West Coast coal export are woefully out of date." The only "figures" cited in the paragraph you referenced was, "less than 1 percent of the Powder River basin's production went overseas in 2008." "Woefully" is defined as "lamentably bad, serious, or deplorable." About all you can really say is that the figures are dated, being almost two years past. "Woefully" might suggest that the current percentage (because that's the only "figure" given) would be much higher. On the other hand, some might not be so impressed if, as is the case, the percentage of PRB export coal has grown from less than 1 percent to over 1 percent. In reality, none of this matters without knowing the number of trains out of the PRB, the number of trains loading to other destinations, the capacity of Roberts Bank and these trains' affect thereon; stuff like that.

Therefore, I merely thought that an actual number of trains might be beneficial to others to clarify your assessment. It is true that shipments have nominally increased during the second half of the year. While 1.14 trains daily has been the average over the course of the year, in recent months, the number delivered to destination has increased to about 1.5 (for the most recent two-week period, for instance, 20 trains will be delivered; of these, about 2/3 have or will run via the MRL, or about 1 per day; The MRL does, of course, handle Boardman and Centralia coal trains that are not included in this count).

I think the salient point about the article was the not the meaningless reference to percentage of PRB coal, but the statement that "industry sources say limited port space is the biggest hang-up." Even as shipments grow nominally, it's obvious that amount of traffic now is irrelevant because its full potential is limited by infrastructure constraints, and therefore is not indicative of demand. If that They Build the Coal Ports, then The Coal does Come, I will be most interested in seeing how the railroads go about making that happen, and that also depends on where the port(s) is/are.



Subject Written By Date/Time (PST)
  Coal To Longview? Tom McCann 11-16-2010 - 23:02
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Graham Buxton 11-17-2010 - 05:37
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Bruce Kelly 11-17-2010 - 07:52
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Mark Meyer 11-17-2010 - 16:21
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Bruce Kelly 11-17-2010 - 20:12
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Mark Meyer 11-18-2010 - 06:30
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Bruce Kelly 11-18-2010 - 11:21
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Mark Meyer 11-18-2010 - 18:03
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Bruce Kelly 11-19-2010 - 08:47
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Mark Meyer 11-20-2010 - 15:41
  Re: Coal To Longview? - link Bryan Whipple 11-17-2010 - 17:18


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