I have been perplexed as to why the RR's did not order way more Tier 3 compliant engines before the deadline. A few years ago, even during the depth of the recession 09-10 they were talking about going after a larger share of domestic box traffic, and most continued with their efforts to expand mainline capacity, so I was expecting far more orders.

Today, with so much fracking traffic (way offsetting the decline of coal shipments), and a recovery of domestic demand, the RR's seem to have been caught napping.

The uncertainty of the Tier 4 technology (leading edge or bleeding edge technology being still assessed?) also would have prompted me to make that prediction.

But, once again, we see the effect of short term stock market demands to prop up stock prices, even during lean years, by accumulating cash, and foregoing long term investments, at the expense of future productivity growth and valuation.