Re: Fallbrook?Can You Build a bridge
Author: Ed Workman
Date: 10-13-2015 - 11:01
You can build anything
Only, how much can you afford?
Do you wanna build 1 bridge or 11?
It's based on probabilities and making the most of resources.
Most of the bridges will survive.
Some won't, onnacounta the event, quake or flood, was bigger than the probabilities foretold.
Like say a 500 year flood, assuming you HAD all the information required for the 100 year event.
I do wonder what has happened in the canyon since 1892, but since then there has been no railroad to 'calibrate' the damage.
Storms tend to be somewhat localized in So CA.
In 1914 [ and in the 20s etc] LA was flooded
In 1915 San Diego was hit hard and a dam was wiped out.
In 1938 LA was cut off from everywhere for a bit- Soledad and Afton canyons took weeks to fix.
Somewhat related is PTC
My take is that the costs will outweigh the gains - measured by the actuarial value of each human life saved, plus property damage avoided. And since those "didn't happen" the estimators have free reign.
Lest anyone think human life is not quantifiable or quantified on a daily basis- get real.
Anything will always always always break/fail.
Lawyers , and politicians, get rich making people think life is or can be risk free.