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Re: Observations from a Demand Forecaster
Author: Dave L
Date: 09-08-2017 - 12:53
BOB2 Wrote:
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> Is SMART even running the scheduled level of
> service on which the 3000 daily estimate was
> "forecast"?
Doubtful. Measure Q called for service every 30 minutes during peak commute hours. There is currently the infamous 90 minute schedule gap southbound AM due to not enough staff / equipment.
> I think October would be a good month to look at
> SMART's daily's, I did all of my major traffic and
> transit survey's in late September or October, or
> April early May, due to no holidays, no vacations,
> "average" day length being the same, so we would
> get an "normal" "average" traffic day which can be
> skewed dramatically by seasonal variation like
> length of daylight, weather, holidays, school out,
> beach traffic, etc..
Agreed. While the initial ridership numbers are interesting, I think they will get better data next month.
Another observation I failed to mention earlier: there was at least one flagger at the Redwood Landfill crossing. The crossing gate appeared to be working fine, but it seems there are still some things to work out.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is SMART even running the scheduled level of
> service on which the 3000 daily estimate was
> "forecast"?
Doubtful. Measure Q called for service every 30 minutes during peak commute hours. There is currently the infamous 90 minute schedule gap southbound AM due to not enough staff / equipment.
> I think October would be a good month to look at
> SMART's daily's, I did all of my major traffic and
> transit survey's in late September or October, or
> April early May, due to no holidays, no vacations,
> "average" day length being the same, so we would
> get an "normal" "average" traffic day which can be
> skewed dramatically by seasonal variation like
> length of daylight, weather, holidays, school out,
> beach traffic, etc..
Agreed. While the initial ridership numbers are interesting, I think they will get better data next month.
Another observation I failed to mention earlier: there was at least one flagger at the Redwood Landfill crossing. The crossing gate appeared to be working fine, but it seems there are still some things to work out.
